Ideas for Betfair trading - Horse Racing Place market.

STRATEGIES AND SUGGESTIONS FOR TRADING HORSE RACES


Be A Bookie - Lay (Dutch) the Place market.

Down to 2 demonstration videos

How to make a profit if one or 2 of your Layed horses are placed.

Lay the Betfair Horse Racing Place market.
When we think of laying in the Betfair horse racing Place market, a big fear may be that we have up to 4 chances of having to make a payout instead of only one in the win market.
If horses we lay finish first, 2nd, 3rd (or 4th in handicaps with 16 or more runners), we will have several payouts if more than one of the horses we have layed gets placed.

If we stake correctly, we can lose only if we have layed ALL placed horses.
If we lay our book to a high enough percentage, we can still show a profit if 1, 2 or 3 horses are placed that we have layed.

The maths of trading the Place market are no different to the maths of trading in the Win market
As we lay more runners, our liabilities decrease, AND :-

  • If we lay to more than a 100% book, we will win if only one of the horses that we lay is placed.
  • If we lay to more than a 200% book, we will win if 2 of the horses that we lay are placed.
  • If we lay to more than a 300% book in a 16+ runner handicap, we will win if 3 of the horses that we lay are placed.
  • Example.  If we lay several horses to more than a 200% book, we will only lose if we lay ALL 3 placed horses.
    That is the maths of the Place market when we stake for an equal payout on all our lays..

So, Laying in the Place market, isn't quite as dangerous as it might seem.

Below, is an example of laying an 8 runner race for small stakes, starting by laying the least fancied horses first.
The maximum liability on any single horse is
-16.97.
The odds shown are the Lay odds that were available.
The profits shown would be bigger and the liabilities smaller if you were able to get matched at shorter odds by offering to lay at lower prices.

  Lay Odds % Total % 1 Placed 2 Placed 3 Placed
Horse 1 6.6 15.15 15.15 -16.97    
Horse 2 5.2 19.23 34.38 -13.12 -33.12  
Horse 3 4.8 20.83 55.21 -8.96 -28.96 -48.96
Horse 4 2.94 34.01 89.22 -2.15 -22.15 -42.15
Horse 5 2.82 35.46 124.68 +4.94 -15.06 -35.06
Horse 6 1.77 56.50 181.19 +16.24 -3.76 -23.76
Horse 7 1.99 50.25 231.44      
Horse 8 (Fav) 1.52 65.79 297.22      

You can see from this example that once we have layed to a book percentage of over 100%, we only have liabilities if we have layed 2 of the horses that are placed, or all 3 placed horses.
Once we lay to a book of over 100%, if only one of the horses that we have layed is placed, we have profit, and if none of the horses that we have layed are placed, all our lays are successful and we clean up with a "Skinner".
This principle applies to all races in the Betfair Horse Racing Place market when we lay to an equal liability on all runners.

Below, is a 2nd example of laying an 8 runner race for small stakes, starting by laying the most fancied horses first.
Read this table from the bottom upwards.
Again, the odds shown are the Lay odds that were available.
The profits shown would be bigger and the liabilities smaller if you were able to get matched at shorter odds by offering to lay at lower prices.

  Lay Odds % Total % 1 Placed 2 Placed 3 Placed
Horse 1 6.6 15.15        
Horse 2 5.2 19.23        
Horse 3 4.8 20.83        
Horse 4 2.94 34.01 242.01 +28.40 +8.40 -11.60
Horse 5 2.82 35.46 208.0 +21.60 +1.60 -18.40
Horse 6 1.77 56.50 172.75 +14.51 -5.49 -25.49
Horse 7 1.99 50.25 116.04 +3.21 -16.79  
Horse 8 (Fav) 1.52 65.79 65.79 -6.84    

The maximum liability on any single horse is -13.20..
You can see from this example that once we have layed to a book percentage of over 200%, we only have liabilities if we have layed all 3 of the horses that are placed.
If only one or 2 of the horses that we have layed is placed, we have profit, and if none of the horses that we have layed are placed, all our lays are successful and we clean up with a "Skinner".
This principle applies to all races in the Betfair Horse Racing Place market when we lay to an equal liability on all runners.

If you have a selection method that strongly favours just a few runners, you may be a able to lay all the other runners and show a profit if just ONE of your favoured runners (that you have NOT layed) is placed, but 2 runners that you HAVE layed are placed.
If 2 of your favoured runners (NOT layed) are placed and just 1 of the runners you HAVE layed is placed, you will have good profit.
If all 3 of your favoured runners are placed, (none of the runners you have layed are placed), all your lays are successful and you clean up with a "Skinner".

That is a big advantage of the Place market.
If you were to use your selection method and lay in the Win market all the runners that your selection method does not select, you would need to lay and NOT hit the winner in order to profit from your lays.
In the place market, you can afford to lay plenty of horses.
Even if you hit the winner and second placed horse (pus the 3rd placed in handicaps with 16+ runners), you can still show a profit provided you have not layed just ONE of the placed horses.
Unless you lay all the placed horses, you can make a profit provided you stake correctly, and lay enough runners.

In the example above, we could use a simple strategy of laying the most fancied runners.
If only one or 2 of the horses that we lay makes the frame, we have profit.
If we are unlucky and lay all 3 placed horses we have liabilities.
If none of the most fancied horses that we have layed are placed 1st, 2nd and 3rd, all our lays are successful - We win the total our all our lays - in this example that would be 41.60.

Also, a big advantage of laying in the Place market is that trading margins are maintained even after commission deductions..

  • If your Lays get matched at the bet price, you will often have guaranteed winnings if you can Lay a full book.
  • If your Bets get matched at the lay price, you will often have guaranteed winnings if you can Bet a full book..

In the Win market, book percentages are very close to 100%, but in the Place market, book percentages of over 305% (Lay) and under 295% (Bet) are not uncommon, especially well before the starting time of the race.
The Lay book percentage in this example is 297.23%.
The Bet book percentage 307.54%.


Lay up to 25 runners and keep track of your market position with an Excel spreadsheet.
In the Betfair Win Only market, we can set the Betfair screen to show our profit or loss, and display "What If" to show potential profit or loss before we place a bet or lay.

In the Betfair Place market, that doesn't happen - Betfair cannot do it.
As you bet and lay in the Betfair Place Only market, your Betfair screen only displays the liabilities for individual runners.
That is because there are too many possible combinations of different profit and loss amounts if we bet and lay several runners at different odds without balancing our stakes for equal liabilites on each runner whatever the result.

For example, in a 4 runner race paying on 2 places, there are 6 possible combinations of 2 with 4 runners :-
AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD.
It is impossible for Betfair to display the liabilities on those 6 different combinations.
A 16 runner handicap paying out on 4 placed horses would require Betfair to display 1820 different combinations - an impossible task.
In a 25 runner handicap, there are 12650 possible combinations for payout on 4 places..

However, there is a solution.
If we stake to equalize our trade for an equal profit or loss on all runners, we can show our market position on a spreadsheet for 1, 2, 3, or 4 placed runners for a race with any number of runners.

The spreadsheet described below shows the stakes required to lay up to 25 runners for an equal liability on each individual runner whatever the outcome of the race.

  • As we lay runners, the spreadsheet shows our market position for ALL runners with payout on 1, 2, 3 or 4 placed horses.

  • Liabilities decrease as we add more lays

  • The individual % is shown for each runner and Total Book %

  • Once we have layed to a book percentage of over 100%, a profit is shown if only one layed selection is placed.

  • Lay to a book percentage of over 200% and we only have liabilities if we lay all 3 placed horses.

  • Lay to a book percentage of over 300% and we only have liabilities if we lay all 4 placed horses.

  • Lay amounts are totalled to show winnings if none of our selections are placed.

To sum up :-

  • If you only hit one placed horse, you can make a profit if your total book percentage is bigger than 100%..

  • You will profit even if 2 of your horses are placed if you lay to a book % of over 200%.

  • You will profit even if 3 of your horses are placed if you lay to a book % of over 300%.

  • If you don't lay any of the placed horses, all your lays are successful - you have a "Skinner" and clean up with a profit equal to the total of your lays.

For a bigger view of the 2 videos below, click the icon with 4 small arrows near the bottom right hand corner, just below the " T " in the word "Tube".

 

Excel spreadsheets are a quick and reliable way of doing calculations.
Purchase an excellent spreadsheet here for only 10.
Be A Bookie - LAY Dutch The Place Market Excel spreadsheet.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view this spreadsheet.

This Be A Bookie LAYING Place Market spreadsheet calculates the Lay stakes required to Lay up to 25 selections to an equal liability.

Input the amount of your Total Payout, and as you input the odds of your selections, the spreadsheet shows :-

  • The Lay stake required for each runner.

  • Equal liabilities against each runner.

  • Liability on each runner reducing as more runners are Layed.

  • Percentage of your book at all stages.

  • Total of Lay stakes at all stages - - -  "Skinner" amount.

  • Guaranteed winnings on one placed lay if your total book is over 100%

  • Guaranteed winnings on 2 placed lays if your total book is over 200%

  • Guaranteed winnings on 3 placed lays if your total book is over 300%.

The more runners you Lay, the less your liabilities become.
The more runners you Lay, the bigger the payout on a "Skinner" - - -  a horse you haven't layed.
In big handicaps, lay to a book percentage of over 300% and you will only have liabilities if you hit ALL 4 placed horses with your lays - - - - - otherwise you will make a profit.

This spreadsheet has an Adjust facility.
This Adjust feature allows you to bias your stakes in favour of one runner, or all runners except one.

For example, you may feel that the winner should come from the first few in the betting.
In a race of say, 8 runners, you may decide to Lay 5 of the runners, to show a profit on the first 4 of your lays, but break even on your 5th runner.
Stake correctly and you could :-

  • win if any one of the horses that you have layed is placed.

  • break even if one of those horses is placed, but make a bigger profit if one of the other 4 is placed.
  • clean up with a skinner if none of the horses you have layed are placed.

Be A Bookie - LAY Dutch The Place Market Excel spreadsheet price = 10.
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment button below.

Note that the number of places paid in Betfair Place markets does not reduce due to non-runners.
Example.
If an 8 runner race paying out on horses placed 1st, 2nd, and 3rd is reduced to 7 or 6 runners due to horses being withdrawn, payout is still made on the first 3 places, not 2 places.
Betfair's Reduction Factor will reduce your profit/liabilities.


BET (Dutch) the Place market.

The spreadsheet described below can be used to Bet up to 25 runners in Betfair's Place market for an equal profit or liability whatever the result.
The spreadsheet works very much like the Place market laying sheet described above, but things happen in reverse since we are Betting instead of Laying,

As we BET more runners, our potential profit decreases :-

  • If we Bet to les than a 100% book, we will win if only one of the horses that we Bet is placed.
  • If we Bet over a 100% book, to show a profit we will need 2 of the horses that we Bet to be placed.
  • If we Bet over a 200% book, to show a profit we will need 3 of the horses that we Bet to be placed.
  • If we Bet over a 300% book, to show a profit we will need 4 of the horses that we Bet to be placed..

Excel spreadsheets are a quick and reliable way of doing calculations.
Purchase an excellent spreadsheet here for only 10.
Be A Bookie - BET Dutch The Place Market Excel spreadsheet.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view this spreadsheet.

This Be A Bookie BETTING Place Market spreadsheet calculates the Bet stakes required to Bet up to 25 selections to an equal liability.

Input the amount of your Total Payout, and as you input the odds of your selections, the spreadsheet shows :-

  • The Bet stake required for each runner.

  • Equal liabilities against each runner.

  • Liability on each runner increasing as more runners are Bet.

  • Percentage of your book at all stages.

  • Total of Bet stakes at all stages.

  • Guaranteed winnings on one placed Bet if your total book is under 100%

  • Guaranteed winnings on 2 placed Bets if your total book is under 200%

  • Guaranteed winnings on 3 placed Bets if your total book is under 300%.

The more runners you Bet, the less profit you will make on your placed horses.

This spreadsheet has an Adjust facility.
This Adjust feature allows you to bias your stakes in favour of one runner, or all runners except one.

For example, you may feel that the winner should come from the first few in the betting.
In a race of say, 8 runners, you may decide to Bet 5 of the runners, to show a profit on the first 4 of your Bets, but break even on your 5th runner.
Stake correctly and you could :-

  • Target one horse to break even, or target one horse to make more profit than the others if placed.

Be A Bookie - BET Dutch The Place Market Excel spreadsheet price = 10.
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment button below.

Note that the number of places paid in Betfair Place markets does not reduce due to non-runners.
Example.
If an 8 runner race paying out on horses placed 1st, 2nd, and 3rd is reduced to 7 or 6 runners due to horses being withdrawn, payout is still made on the first 3 places, not 2 places.
Betfair's Reduction Factor will reduce your profit/liabilities.

 

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