Best in at the Weights – UK & Ireland Version




The theory behind this strategy is that if we can consistently bet the horses that are “Best in at the weights”, we should be betting on the fastest horses. . . . In theory anyway.
If your selections are weighted to win, they should run very well.

The official handicappers look at the performance of every horse that runs and after a horse has run several times, it is allocated a rating in pounds that reflects how well it has performed.
That method of comparing runners and allocating an Official Rating (OR) is standard practice in major racing countries around The World.
A top performer will be allocated a bigger number than a poor performer.
When horses run in a handicap race, they are weighted according to their Official Rating (OR) so that in theory, they should all hit the finish line at the same time for a dead heat result for all runners if every horse runs up to its OR mark.
That is basic handicapping theory as I see it.

Stakes races. . . . . Non- handicap races.
In Conditions Races, . . . non-handicap races, . . . weights are allocated according to the conditions of the race such as weight for age, weight for sex, weight added for prize money earned, etc.
Horses are NOT weighted to cause a mass dead heat at the winning post.
We can use that simple fact to our advantage.
In non-handicap races, we can look at the weights to be carried and work out how much “Better in” one horse is than another.
When we see that for every runner, the order in which runners should finish according to weight carried, becomes obvious.

A spreadsheet can work that out quickly and accurately, and show an expected finishing order based on weight and OR.
This is a “Best in at the weights” spreadsheet.
Even if the runners in your Stakes Race don’t all carry the same weight, you can see which horses are favoured by the weights and which are not.
It doesn’t even matter where your race takes place – – The UK, Ireland, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Africa, etc., the principle is exactly the same in other countries.

The video below describes the spreadsheet.
If you are patient, you will find races with a horse that really stands out as “Best in at the weights”.
Horses running with 10 lbs or more “in hand” are not unusual, and I have seen races with runners with much more than that in hand of all other runners.
Those don’t always win of course, but at least you can get some idea of the likely outcome if all runners were able to run to their Official Rating mark for you.

2 separate Excel files are available below :-
One file to cover Imperial weights of stones & pounds, and a 2nd file to cover metric weights of Kgs used in other countries.
I have used both files for betting in UK races as well as races in Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore & South Africa, using markets available in Betfair.
Time Zone differences such as Australia being 11 hours in front of The UK, need not be a problem. I often bet the evening before racing using Betfair S.P.
Note that horses are not machines, so other factors besides weight will affect results of races that you put into these 2 files. . . of course.
You may also choose to use these spreadsheets to select horses to lay. – – – Horses that do not look to be favoured by the weights and conditions of the race.
A facility in the spreadsheets highlights “Worst in at the weights” runners in pink.
An Excel input can be adjusted to select more or fewer horses to lay.

Copyright notice. In the video below, Betfair content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Sporting Exchange Limited. © The Sporting Exchange Limited.