Trade The Winning Team

£20.00

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Description

This strategy involves both Dutching and Hedging.
Insurance against a draw result or a win by the “Losing Team”, is provided by a Lay of the Winning Team.
Theory.
The aim of this strategy, is to have a winning bet on the final score in the Correct Score market.
To do that at any time in the game, we could Bet the current score, plus other scores as goals are scored.
If we continually Bet the current winning score as goals were scored, we would of course soon Bet an over-round book and quite often make a loss on our trades.
We can cut down on the number of Bets required, if we only have to Bet on one team.
To keep the number of bets on different scores to a minimum, we can wait until late in the game before entering the market.
To insure against a Draw result or the Losing Team scoring goals and going on to win the game, all we need is a very small insurance Lay on the winning team
.

Insurance Lay.
If we Lay the Winning Team, that Lay would be successful if the result was a Draw or a win for the team that was Losing when we placed our Lay.
By laying the winning team at very short odds, we can avoid having to Bet draw score lines such as 1-1, 2-2, and all possible scores for the team that was losing when we placed our Lay.
The cost of that Lay can be very small.
For example a Lay of £20 at odds of 1.04, carries a liability of only minus £0.80.

If we enter the market at a score of 1-0, and Lay the winning Team, we would have a successful Lay if the Losing Team equalized or won the game.
To hit the winning score for the Winning Team, we only need to Bet the current score of 1-0, plus 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, and Any Unquoted, but to Bet all those possible scores probably wouldn’t be profitable.

So, the idea is, to enter the market late in the game, especially at a 2 goal difference in the score, such as 2-0 or 0-2, and Bet the current score and other scores as goals are scored, to make sure we Bet the winning score result.
If the match ends in a draw or a win for the “Losing Team”, we have a successful Lay on the “Winning Team”.

Strategy.

  • Late in the game, in the Match Odds market, Lay the Winning Team.

  • In the Correct Score market, Bet the current score line, plus the next 2 possible scores..

  • As the game progresses, Bet further score lines as necessary in the Correct Score market..

  • Make sure you Bet the final score result.

Example.  Russia – Sweden.  Euro 2008.  June 17th 2008.  Russia won the game 2-0.
Russia were leading 2-0 at 50 minutes.
Lay odds at 60 minutes for Russia were 1.09 in the Match Odds market.
Lay Russia £30 at 1.09 for a liability of -£2.70.
In the Correct Score market, Bet the current score, 2-0, plus the next 2 possible scores 3-0 and 2-1, for a win or lose profit of £7.71.

Above is a snapshot of the “Trade Winning Team” spreadsheet.
Enter the Lay Odds of the Winning Team, plus the Lay stake.
Enter the odds of the current score and the next 2 possible scores for the Winning Team from the Correct Score market.
In this case, with the score of 2-0, the current score is 2-0, and the next 2 possible scores for the winning team are 3-0 and 2-1.

Enter the odds, and the spreadsheet shows the stakes required in the Correct Score market, for the current score and the next 2 possible scores.
The potential Overall Win / Lose Gross profit is shown for the whole trade across both Match Odds and Correct Score markets, in this case £7.71.

Timing of your entry into the market is important.
If you enter the market late in the game, there is less time for goals to be scored, but be aware that the odds of the current score and possibly the next score up for the winning team will probably be shortening in the Correct Score market.

A problem with this strategy is that if you wait too long before entering the Match Odds and Correct Score markets after a goal is scored, for example at a score of 2-0 or 0-2, the Match odds may stabilise, whilst the Correct Score odds continue to shorten.
The effect of that is your potential profit may be reduced, especially if more goals are scored.
So, …… before entering the market, use the spreadsheet to check for the potential profit.

An advantage of this strategy.

  • If you have Layed the winning team and a goal is scored by the Losing Team before you have placed Bets in the Correct Score market, the odds of the Winning Team should lengthen to some degree.
    This offers an excellent opportunity to Hedge out of the Match Odds market with a Bet on the Winning Team at Higher odds than your Lay.
    A Hedge spreadsheet is provided to show the stakes required for a successful Hedge in this situation.