Hedge Under 1.5 Goals with Insurance




This is a Bet First strategy in which we look to trade during the First Half of a football match.
As you know, whilst the score remains 0-0, the odds of Under 1.5 Goals drop as time passes in the game.
A bet on Under 1.5 Goals before the Kick Off can be layed to profit at anytime whilst the score remains 0-0.

After one goal is scored, either 1-0 or 0-1 in the Correct Score market (whichever is still In Play) and Under 1.5 Goals, become equivalent markets.

The odds of Under 1.5 Goals will be virtually the same as either 1-0 or 0-1 – – – whichever is still In Play.

Quite often, after one goal in the First Half, the market expects more goals, so the odds of Under 1.5 Goals can be bigger after the first goal than they were before the Kick Off.
In such a game, it may be impossible to lay Under 1.5 Goals to profit immediately after a goal has been scored without trading to a sizeable loss.

To exit to profit from such a trade usually involves sweating it out whilst we wait for time to pass in the game and the odds of Under 1.5 Goals to drop.
Whilst we are waiting, we run the risk of a second goal making our whole trade a losing bet.

This “Under 1.5 Goals with insurance” strategy gets around that problem in most games by trading the scores
of 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 and using an insurance lay, instead of simply betting and laying in the Under 1.5 Goals market.
Basic strategy.

  • Before the Kick Off, bet scores in the Correct Score market.
  • Before the Kick Off, place a lay as insurance against a 0-0 result.
  • As the game progresses with a score of 0-0, we look to exit the market by laying our bets, and betting our insurance lay for an overall profit.
    As time passes in the game, we expect this profit to increase whilst the score is 0-0.
  • If a goal is scored, Lay our one remaining In Play score (either 1-0 or 0-1) in the Correct Score market to an overall profit or an acceptable loss, to exit the whole trade.
    Note that a goal after about 30 minutes can often be very good for this strategy.

When we trade this strategy, we bet and lay the very predictable odds of 0-0, 1-0 & 0-1.

We look to exit to profit whilst the score remains 0-0.

If a goal is scored, the profit from our insurance lay will often enable us to trade to profit without having to wait for time to pass in the game before placing our lay on 1-0 or 0-1 (whichever is still In Play) to exit our trade.

An early goal can cause problems.

Also, as with any trade involving Under 1.5 Goals, 2 quick goals means end of trade, but our insurance lay means that we don’t lose our whole bet stakes.

We place our insurance lay to help us to trade to profit after one goal and keep losses down to an acceptable level if the first goal is scored early in the game, or 2 quick goals are scored.

If we are able to select low scoring games with no goals or only one goal in the First Half, this strategy may produce consistent profits in the long term.