The Nuts & Bolts of Bet & Lay Staking


The Nuts & Bolts of Bet & Lay staking of an odds movement.
There are plenty of YouTube videos that demonstrate what to trade, and how to trade it.
The Nuts & Bolts videos below take a detailed look at bet and lay trading of odds movements, from a Staking point of view.

There are some quite unusual looking graphs, but don’t be put off by those graphs.
It is easy to draw negative conclusions from those graphs, but they are shown here to demonstrate the positives that we can get out of them.
Very big positives are how to keep stakes down, whilst keeping profits up, and also how we may be able to keep red trade losses down.
All 3 of those aspects can be achieved simply by choosing to trade the smaller odds within an increment range of odds. . . . A surprisingly simple strategy.

Videos will also demonstrate that Equalizing trades for an equal win or lose profit may be the safest way to trade, but is not necessarily the most profitable option, and it is certainly not the cheapest way to trade.
Not everyone will agree that equalizing is not necessarily the most profitable option, but trading just to Bet or just to Lay, do pay better, but both of those options introduce another element to the trades, we need to hit winners if trading to bet, and losers if trading to lay.

Also, have you ever searched for  Staking Plans for your bet & lay trades ?
In my opinion, there is nothing wrong with adding a bit of organization to our trading activities, so why are staking plans for traders almost non-existent after the 24 year life of Betfair?
Does no-one need an organized approach ?

Copyright notice. In the videos below, Betfair content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Sporting Exchange Limited. © The Sporting Exchange Limited.

Exchange Trading Options

When we think of “Trading”, I imagine that most of us think of a bet, followed by a lay at smaller odds to equalize for an equal win or lose profit.
Lots of YouTube video demonstrations mostly concentrate on trading to equalize profits, but a successful bet and lay trade can be used to produce other results.

The Equalize trade itself consists of a bet and lay to create profit if we hit a winner, and also a bet and lay to create profit if we hit a loser.
Combined, those 4 stakes create profit if the trade hits a winner, or a loser.
You will probably be used to seeing some trades open with a bet and a lay of the same size to create profit on the win side of the trade, followed by a lay of a different size to create profit on the lay side of the trade, 3 stakes, but if we break the initial bet down, a small part of that bet has been used to create the win profit, and a larger part of that initial bet has been used to create the profit if we hit a loser.
The total trade consists of a bet and lay with small stakes, plus a bet and lay with bigger stakes, total 4 stakes, not 3.

From that, we can see that we have 3 different trading options :-

1. Bet & lay to favour a win outcome.
2. Bet & lay to favour a lose outcome.
3. Bet & lay to favour either outcome.

In the screenshots below, Columns J to M work out the stakes required to trade for a 1 tick profit based on the Bet odds at cell B11.
We can see that the Equalizing stakes at the top, are an addition of the stakes below for staking to favour the bet side of the trade, and the lose side.
If we bet and lay the same size stake of £20 at odds 3.2 & lay at 3.15, we win £1 if we hit a winner, and lose zero if anything else wins.
We have one runner running for us. In a 20 runner race, we would have one runner running for us, and 19 running against us.
In the left hand section of the spreadsheet, I have entered a bet of £43 in cell A19, and also in E19.
Odds of 3.2 entered at B11 & F11 give us a range of odds above and below those, with a lay stake in pink, and profit / loss in columns D & H if we place those lays to exit the tarde at one of those odds.
The left hand section shows stakes and P & L to favour the Lay side of the trade. The right hand section shows stakes and P & L to equalize.
Both trades open with an equal bet stake of £43.
Column I (eye) shows the difference in profit or loss of the 2 staking methods.

As you know, when we place any lay, we have liabilities (payout) against the runner that we have layed, but profit against all the runners that we have not layed.
In this trading example, if we lay to favour the lay using one of the lay stakes in column C, we will lose zero if we hit the winner, but we will have column D profit if hit a loser.
All the runners are running for us except the runner that we have layed.
Column I allows us to compare the profit from Favouring The Lay, with profit from Equalizing.
In this first screenshot, 1 tick profit in column D is 32 pence bigger than Column H profit, a massive 47% difference.
66 pence as a % of £1.39 = 47.48% for 2 ticks, . . . . . .£1.03 as a % of £2.11 = 48.81% for 3 ticks, and so on.

The only negative here is that we need to hit a loser, or our profit is zero, but is that a problem ?
Compare what we are doing here with a Lay the Draw trade that uses a bet of 0-0 as insurance against no goal being scored in the football match.
Lots of traders will trade LTD without an insurance bet, knowing that insurance is very expensive.
In our screenshot below, the smaller trade of the win outcome generates profit only if the runner that we trade wins, so perhaps in an Equalizing trade such as our screenshot example here, that win part of the trade is merely insurance against our trade hitting a winner.
It serves no other purpose.
There is a slight difference between this trade and an LTD trade, but the insurance principle is pretty much the same, in my opinion.

Screenshot 2 uses bigger odds.
Column I (eye) shows % differences of 25%, 26.38%, 26.9% etc., still a very significant difference.

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