Strategies with spreadsheets for trading
bookie refunds and bonus payments.
Mop up the
profits
from bookie refunds and bonus payments.
Ammunition you need to trade profitably with zero risk is
available here.
Bookies offer
incentives to encourage their existing customers to continue
to bet with them.
These usually come in the form of a refund of a losing bet
stake, a free bet, or a bonus added to winnings.
A steady stream of bookie refund and bonus offers is
available almost every day, but many cannot be traded with
zero risk.
We need to sift through the different offers to sort the
good offers from the not so good.
The strategies available here
are tried and tested.
Some pay better than others.
Profits from these trades are best if we can bet with high odds and lay
with low odds, but in most cases when making these trades :-
it doesn't matter if
we hit winners or losers,
or if our bet odds
are a bit smaller than our lay odds.
Lose Only refund, or "No Lose" bet . . . . . . Zero risk.
Typical bookie offer :- "Place a bet on xxx and if your bet loses, we
will refund your losing bet stake."
This kind of offer pays very well.
The offer may be to refund only a percentage of your bet stake . . . .
.a 2nd spreadsheet is included to cover that. The strategy is a straightforward bet with the bookie and a lay
of the same selection in Betfair.
Even if the refund is in the form of a free bet rather than a cash
refund, we can trade the free bet afterwards in the normal way and
usually still
come out in front, so these offers are always worth doing.
If we hit a winner, our bet winnings will be bigger than our lay
liabilities for a profit on the trade.
If we hit a loser, we have a successful lay in Betfair, and zero loss
with the bookie as our bet stake is refunded for a profit on the trade..
Big odds pay best.
Lose Only Refund
/ No Lose bet
spreadsheet
£5
Use this spreadsheet to trade a bookie Lose Only refund
offer.
The spreadsheet shows the staking required to trade to
guaranteed winnings with zero risk.
A video description of the strategy and the spreadsheet is
included.
After payment via
PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the
Excel spreadsheet file.
Percentage bonus added to winnings. . . .
. . . Zero risk.
Typical bookie offer
:- "Bet on the xxx and if you hit a winner, we will double your winnings
up to a max £50."
An offer to double our winnings is a 100%
bonus.
Offers may be a 50% or less refund.
A 100% refund pays very well, with smaller percentage refunds paying
less of course.
An upper limit is usually put on the bonus payment.
Other "Winnings Added" offers may be - -
"Bet on xxx and if you hit a winner we will match your stake as a free
bet up to £25".
The Excel file below contains 2 spreadsheets - one for a percentage
added to winnings and a 2nd sheet for cash added.
We know that if we are awarded a free bet instead of cash we can expect
to make about 70% or more of the cash from trading the free bet.
To profit from a Free Bet refund, all that we need to do is set the Cash
refund to slightly less in the spreadsheet if the refund is a free bet.
For example, if we qualify for a £25 free bet, set the refund to £20 in
the spreadsheet instead of the full £25, and then if we hit a winner and
need to trade a free bet afterwards, we should still come out with a
profit.
If we hit a loser with our initial bookie bet and lay in Betfair, we
still have an ok profit.
The strategy
for a percentage added bonus
is a straightforward bet with the bookie and a lay of the same selection
in Betfair.
We bet with the bookie so that our
winnings are equal to the upper limit of the bonus payment.
In the percentage added example above, we would bet to win £50 with the bookie.
We then lay the same selection in Betfair.
If we hit a loser, our lay liabilities are less than our bet winnings
with the bonus payment added - we have an overall profit.
If we hit a loser, we have a successful lay that is bigger than our
losing bookie bet - we have an overall profit.
Big odds pay best.
These offers are quite rare these days, but if you live in Australia or
New Zealand, at the time of writing, IASbet and Sportingbet.com.au offer
this kind of incentive almost every week.
Unfortunately, those 2 bookies eliminated UK and other customers from
these offers some time ago.
The strategy for a cash bonus is
also a
straightforward bet with the bookie and a lay of the same selection in Betfair.
We enter the cash bonus amount into the spreadsheet and then bet with
the bookie and lay the same selection in Betfair.
If the bonus is in the form of a free bet, just set the cash bonus to an
amount slightly smaller than the free bet, just in case we hit a winner
and need to trade the free bet afterwards.
That will reduce the profit by a small amount, but will ensure a profit
whatever happens to our trade.
Small odds will probably pay best for a cash or free bet added bonus.
Percentage bonus
or cash, or a free bet added to winnings spreadsheet
£5
Use this spreadsheet to trade a bookie Percentage Added
bonus offer.
The spreadsheet shows the staking required to trade to
guaranteed winnings with zero risk.
A video description of the strategy and the spreadsheet is
included.
After payment via
PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the
Excel spreadsheet file.
Monthly or weekly percentage refund of
losses. . . . . . Zero risk.
Typical bookie offer :- "Opt
in for a 20% refund of monthly or 10% of weekly losses."
We can trade to specifically take advantage of this type of refund. The strategy
is a straightforward bet
with the bookie and a lay of the same selection in Betfair.
Horse racing markets work best.
Find suitable odds and we
can have guaranteed profit from this kind of offer
:-
It doesn't matter if
our bet odds are a bit smaller than our lay odds.
We can bet low and lay high and still trade to profit.
Our first bet and
lay trade :-
It doesn't matter if we hit a winner or a loser, we have profit.
2 or more bet and
lay trades :-
If we hit one or more losers, our refund amount builds up with the
bookie.
If we hit a winner,
our losses with the bookie could be wiped out and our refund
eliminated BUT :-
It doesn't matter if
we hit a winner and wipe out our bookie losses, we still have
profit.
If we hit one or more losers and then a winner, the refund amount
that we have built up so far with the bookie is not lost.
The refund amount
becomes part of the profit on the win side of our trade when we hit
a winner.
How the staking
works for each individual bet and lay trade :-
Hit a loser, and our successful lay stake (less commission) is
smaller than our losing bet with the bookie.
However, the refund amount given by the bookie added to the lay,
puts our trade into profit.
Hit a winner, and our bet winnings are bigger than our lay
liabilities.
Due to the small
percentage of these refunds, profits from an individual trade won't be
big.
Quite often this kind of offer lasts for several months, so the
potential for modest but on-going profit is there.
The video below describes
the spreadsheet and shows a live trade.
The odds for that trade are football odds and are very poor.
We wouldn't normally bet and lay such poor odds, but the example trade
shows how to increase and release a percentage of losses refund from a
bookie.
A better and more profitable trading example will follow later.
Monthly or weekly percentage refund of losses
spreadsheet
£5
Use this spreadsheet to trade a monthly or weekly Bookie Percentage Added
bonus offer.
The spreadsheet shows the staking required.
The video above describes this
strategy and the spreadsheet.
Instructions for inputs are also on the spreadsheet.
After payment via
PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the
Excel spreadsheet file.
Typical bookie offer :-
As usual, this type of bookie refund may
involve a qualifying bet or bets.
Just as
with the bookie offers that we are used to seeing that involve
betting and laying a single runner, bookie
accumulator offers come in several different forms :-
Place a bet or several bets, get a free
accumulator bet.
Bet an accumulator and get a
free bet.
Bet an accumulator and get a
free accumulator bet.
Bet a winning accumulator
and the bookie will add a percentage to our winnings. I wouldn't attempt to profit from a low percentage bonus
such as 10% or 20% when trading accumulators.
50% or 100% added winnings will be ok.
Bet an accumulator and get a
refund if our accumulator is a loser. This last one may be described by your bookie as a "No Lose"
offer.
Strategy :-
Bet the qualifying bet or bets with the bookie and lay the other end of
those in Betfair or Betdaq,
OR bet and lay the qualifying accumulator bet.
Then bet and lay the free bet or the free accumulator to profit.
If the offer is Added Winnings or is a "No Lose" offer, no qualifying
bet is involved, so we can go ahead and bet and lay the accumulator to
profit that includes the bonus, cash refund, or or a free bet whatever the results of the events in our
accumulator.
As with normal free bet offers for single
runners, we can trade accumulator offers to profit.
The only difference is that we are dealing with more runners. Note that I do not have a
strategy for laying "One Leg Lets You Down" bookie refund offers.
You will need your own ideas to lay those to guaranteed profit.
I don't have an answer for those.
Process for betting and laying
accumulators.
Select runners or football teams with time between each so that we know
the result of one selection before we lay the next.
Bet the accumulator with the bookie, lay each runner in Betfair or Betdaq.
Lay each runner in turn, adjusting our lay stake a little if our lay
odds change between events.
Hit a loser and that is end of trade. . . . . we have a losing bet but a successful lay.
Hit a winner and we need to lay again.
Our 2nd lay stake recovers the lay liabilities from hitting that first
winner, to exit our trade if we hit a loser with our 2nd runner.
. . . . . and so it goes on.
We either hit a loser at some point to exit our trade, or we hit all
winners.
If we hit all winners with our accumulator, lay liabilities may be
bigger or smaller than bet winnings, depending on the type of bookie
accumulator offer that we are trading.
Either way, stake correctly and we can trade to profit with zero risk
unless the bookie offer forces us to select events that all take place
at the same time. . . . . see below.
Commission is built into the spreadsheet calculations.
Choose suitable runners, stake correctly, and we
can lay every runner if necessary without getting into difficulties.
Hit a loser at any point, or even hit all winners with our accumulator,
and we can take
advantage of the bookie offer.
With a little practice, there should be nothing to fear from trading
accumulator refund offers if we stake correctly.
Bookie accumulator refund and bonus
trades are just the same as bookie refund
trades of a single runner :-
We may have a small loss from
trading our qualifying bet or bets.
Whatever the bookie offer, we expect to
recover any "Qualifier" loss and show a profit on top when we get
the refund or bonus payment.
If the terms of an offer make it impossible for us to lay runners or
teams with time between events, we will need to trade runners that
all
kick off at the same time, and trade them all at once, "In Play".
That kind of trade involves some risk.
A Dutching spreadsheet is also supplied to show the staking for that and
is described in the videos below.
Video 1 demonstrates the 2 spreadsheets
in my "Lay an Accumulator" Excel file.
How to lay various different bookie accumulator refund
offers - - uses the Profit Target sheet.
Video 2 describes the Dutching sheet again
(an earlier version),
but demonstrates laying a treble at about 5 minutes onwards.
Video 3 describes 5 of my trades and
shows the stakes in my account. Note that this spreadsheet file is only available on
my
Multiples web page. not as per the comment in the 3rd video. Note also that Dortmund only scored one goal, not 2 . .
. . a mistake in my commentary.
For a BIGGER VIEW of these videos, click the small icon bottom right
with 4 square corners.
To move from one video to the next, click the double arrow icon, bottom
left of the YouTube screen.
Lay accumulators spreadsheet
£10
Use a spreadsheet to trade bookie Accumulator Refund and
Bonus offers by laying one runner at a time, or use a 2nd
spreadsheet to lay several selections of an accumulator that
all kick off at around the same time.
Links to
YouTube videos are included
within the Excel file.
After payment via
PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the
Excel spreadsheet file. Note. If the file appears to be locked when you
open it, just re-name the file and it should then work ok
for you.
1. Lose Only refund
2. Percentage Added to winnings 3.
Free exchange bet. The 3 sheets described below show the staking required to balance
our trade for an equal profit or loss.
Using the stakes shown, it doesn't matter whether we hit a winner or a loser,
the profit will be the same.
For best results of course, trade with Bet odds higher than lay odds.
Exchange to exchange "Lose Only" refunds. . . . . . Zero risk.
Occasionally, Betfair or Betdaq offer a refund if we hit a loser, or
have losses.
As usual with bookie refunds, we can trade these offers to profit
whether we hit a winner or a loser, but sometimes Betfair or Betdaq may
stipulate that we need to hit more than one loser before we qualify for
the refund.
We can work around that - - -as described below.
These trades are just a straight forward bet with one exchange and lay
in the other.
The spreadsheet below can be used to bet in Betfair and lay in Betdaq,
or the other way around.
Different commission rates can be set in the spreadsheet and are built
into both sides of the calculations.
These offers may not come along very often, but when they do, they are
definitely worth looking at. Basic strategy.........Refund on a single runner.
Bet in one exchange and lay the same runner in the other.
It doesn't matter if we hit a winner or a loser, and it doesn't matter
if our bet odds are a bit bigger than our lay odds.
Stake correctly and we can have guaranteed winnings with zero risk.
Basic strategy.........Refund on a 3rd runner after hitting 2 losers.
In the past, a Betdaq offer was, hit 3 losers and get a refund of our bet stake if we hit
a loser in our
3rd race.
My strategy to trade that offer was :-
Bet and lay losers in 2
horse
races using small stakes.
A small loss is expected from each of those 2 trades.
Bet and lay the 3rd race
as a "Lose Only" refund, staking
with a BIG bet stake
equal to the maximum of the
refund.
In this 3rd race, we stake for a win or lose profit that will recover the small losses
from the previous 2 trades, and show a profit on top.
If we can hit 2 losers
in the first 2 races, it doesn't matter whether we hit a winner or a
loser in the 3rd race.
Win or lose in that 3rd "Lose Only" refund race, a profit will be shown over the 3
trades combined.
Exchange to exchange "Winnings added" bonus . . . . . . Zero risk. Occasionally, Betfair or Betdaq
offer to add a bonus percentage to our Bet winnings or our Lay profit.
The Excel file described below contains spreadsheets to cover both types
of offer.
Usually, winnings can be either bet winnings or lay winnings.
As usual, we can trade these bonus payment offers to profit whether we
hit a winner or a loser.
These trades are just a straight forward bet with one exchange and lay
in the other.
The spreadsheet below can be used to bet in Betfair and lay in Betdaq,
or the other way around.
Different commission rates can be set in the spreadsheet and are built
into both sides of the calculations.
These offers may not come along very often, but when they do, they are
definitely worth looking at.
These offers don't pay quite as well as "Lose Only" offers.
Note that for best results, you will need to use large stakes for these
winnings added trades, but stake correctly and these are zero risk
trades. Basic strategy.
Bet in one exchange and lay the same runner in the other.
It doesn't matter if we hit a winner or a loser, and it doesn't matter
if our bet odds are a bit bigger than our lay odds.
Stake correctly and we can have guaranteed winnings with zero risk.
Exchange Free Bet . . . . . . Zero risk. Occasionally,
Betfair or Betdaq will offer a free bet.
Usually we will need to place a qualifying bet before we qualify for the
free bet, but trading a deposit or a free bet between exchanges can be
done very cheaply, so profits from exchange free bets are very good.
It doesn't matter if the free bet stake is, or is not returned with
winnings - - - exchange free bets pay very well and should not be
missed. Basic strategy.
The strategy once again is a straight bet with one exchange and lay in
the other.
It doesn't matter if we hit a winner or a loser, and it doesn't matter
if our bet odds are a bit bigger than our lay odds.
Stake correctly and we can have guaranteed winnings with zero risk.
Three Exchange
to exchange refund and bonus
spreadsheets
£15
Use these spreadsheets to trade exchange offers of a :
Refund if we hit a loser
or have losses . . . . includes a video description
A percentage added to
winnings .
. . . includes a video description
A free bet in the
exchange.
The spreadsheets show the
staking required, to bet and lay between 2 exchanges to take
advantage of these offers, with commission rates built into
both sides of the trade.
After payment via
PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the
Excel spreadsheet file.
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