Football trading strategiesHorse racing strategiesExcel Trading Spreadsheets  

Strategies with spreadsheets for trading bookie refunds and bonus payments.

Bookies offer incentives to encourage their existing customers to continue to bet with them.
These usually come in the form of a refund of a losing bet stake, a free bet, or a bonus added to winnings.

A steady stream of bookie refund and bonus offers is available almost every day, but many cannot be traded with zero risk.
We need to sift through the different offers to sort the good offers from the not so good.

The strategies available here are tried and tested.
Some pay better than others.
Follow these links down the web page to the different strategies :-

Always make sure that you read the bookie's Terms and Conditions so that you fully understand the offer before trading it.

NEW     Take a look at the free on-line calculators on the "Free Calcs" web page.

Mop up the profits
from bookie refunds and bonus payments.

Ammunition you need to trade profitably with zero risk is available  here.

Profits from these trades are best if we can bet with high odds and lay with low odds, but in most cases when making these trades :-

  • it doesn't matter if we hit winners or losers,
  • or if our bet odds are a bit smaller than our lay odds.

Lose Only refund, or "No Lose" bet . . . . . . Zero risk.
Typical bookie offer :- "Place a bet on xxx and if your bet loses, we will refund your losing bet stake."
This kind of offer pays very well.
The offer may be to refund only a percentage of your bet stake . . . . .a 2nd spreadsheet is included to cover that.
The strategy is a straightforward bet with the bookie and a lay of the same selection in Betfair.
Even if the refund is in the form of a free bet rather than a cash refund, we can trade the free bet afterwards in the normal way and usually still come out in front, so these offers are always worth doing.
If we hit a winner, our bet winnings will be bigger than our lay liabilities for a profit on the trade.
If we hit a loser, we have a successful lay in Betfair, and zero loss with the bookie as our bet stake is refunded for a profit on the trade..
Big odds pay best.

Lose Only Refund / No Lose bet spreadsheet       5
Use this spreadsheet to trade a bookie Lose Only refund offer.
The spreadsheet shows the staking required to trade to guaranteed winnings with zero risk.
A video description of the strategy and the spreadsheet is included.

After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.

 

 

Percentage bonus added to winnings. . . . . . . Zero risk.
Typical bookie offer :- "Bet on the xxx and if you hit a winner, we will double your winnings up to a max 50."
An offer to double our winnings is a 100%
bonus.
Offers may be a 50% or less refund.
A 100% refund pays very well, with smaller percentage refunds paying less of course.
An upper limit is usually put on the bonus payment.

Other "Winnings Added" offers may be - - "Bet on xxx and if you hit a winner we will match your stake as a free bet up to 25".
The Excel file below contains 2 spreadsheets - one for a percentage added to winnings and a 2nd sheet for cash added.
We know that if we are awarded a free bet instead of cash we can expect to make about 70% or more of the cash from trading the free bet.
To profit from a Free Bet refund, all that we need to do is set the Cash refund to slightly less in the spreadsheet if the refund is a free bet.
For example, if we qualify for a 25 free bet, set the refund to 20 in the spreadsheet instead of the full 25, and then if we hit a winner and need to trade a free bet afterwards, we should still come out with a profit.
If we hit a loser with our initial bookie bet and lay in Betfair, we still have an ok profit.

The strategy for a percentage added bonus is a straightforward bet with the bookie and a lay of the same selection in Betfair.
We bet with the bookie so that our winnings are equal to the upper limit of the bonus payment.
In the percentage added example above, we would bet to win 50 with the bookie.
We then lay the same selection in Betfair.
If we hit a loser, our lay liabilities are less than our bet winnings with the bonus payment added - we have an overall profit.
If we hit a loser, we have a successful lay that is bigger than our losing bookie bet - we have an overall profit.
Big odds pay best.
These offers are quite rare these days, but if you live in Australia or New Zealand, at the time of writing, IASbet and Sportingbet.com.au offer this kind of incentive almost every week.
Unfortunately, those 2 bookies eliminated UK and other customers from these offers some time ago.

The strategy for a cash bonus is also a straightforward bet with the bookie and a lay of the same selection in Betfair.
We enter the cash bonus amount into the spreadsheet and then bet with the bookie and lay the same selection in Betfair.
If the bonus is in the form of a free bet, just set the cash bonus to an amount slightly smaller than the free bet, just in case we hit a winner and need to trade the free bet afterwards.
That will reduce the profit by a small amount, but will ensure a profit whatever happens to our trade.
Small odds will probably pay best for a cash or free bet added bonus.

Percentage bonus or cash, or a free bet added to winnings spreadsheet       5
Use this spreadsheet to trade a bookie Percentage Added bonus offer.
The spreadsheet shows the staking required to trade to guaranteed winnings with zero risk.
A video description of the strategy and the spreadsheet is included.

After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.


Monthly or weekly percentage refund of losses. . . . . . Zero risk.
Typical bookie offer :- "Opt in for a 20% refund of monthly or 10% of weekly losses."
We can trade to specifically take advantage of this type of refund.
The strategy is a straightforward bet with the bookie and a lay of the same selection in Betfair.
Horse racing markets work best.
Find suitable odds and we can have guaranteed profit from this kind of offer :-

  • It doesn't matter if our bet odds are a bit smaller than our lay odds.
    We can bet low and lay high and still trade to profit.
  • Our first bet and lay trade :-
    It doesn't matter if we hit a winner or a loser, we have profit.
  • 2 or more bet and lay trades :-
    If we hit one or more losers, our refund amount builds up with the bookie.
  • If we hit a winner, our losses with the bookie could be wiped out and our refund eliminated BUT :-
  • It doesn't matter if we hit a winner and wipe out our bookie losses, we still have profit.
    If we hit one or more losers and then a winner, the refund amount that we have built up so far with the bookie is not lost.
  • The refund amount becomes part of the profit on the win side of our trade when we hit a winner.
  • How the staking works for each individual bet and lay trade :-
    Hit a loser, and our successful lay stake (less commission) is smaller than our losing bet with the bookie.
    However, the refund amount given by the bookie added to the lay, puts our trade into profit.
    Hit a winner, and our bet winnings are bigger than our lay liabilities.

Due to the small percentage of these refunds, profits from an individual trade won't be big.
Quite often this kind of offer lasts for several months, so the potential for modest but on-going profit is there.

Copyright notice.  In the video below, Betfair content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Sporting Exchange Limited.  The Sporting Exchange Limited.

The video below describes the spreadsheet and shows a live trade.
The odds for that trade are football odds and are very poor.
We wouldn't normally bet and lay such poor odds, but the example trade shows how to increase and release a percentage of losses refund from a bookie.
A better and more profitable trading example will follow later.

 

Monthly or weekly percentage refund of losses spreadsheet       5
Use this spreadsheet to trade a monthly or weekly Bookie Percentage Added bonus offer.
The spreadsheet shows the staking required.
The video above describes this strategy and the spreadsheet.
Instructions for inputs are also on the spreadsheet.

After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.


How to trade various bookie accumulator refunds and bonus offers.  . . . .  . Zero risk or some risk.
Typical bookie offer :-
As usual, this type of bookie refund may involve a qualifying bet or bets.
Just as with the bookie offers that we are used to seeing that involve betting and laying a single runner, bookie accumulator offers come in several different forms :-

  • Place a bet or several bets, get a free accumulator bet.
  • Bet an accumulator and get a free bet.
  • Bet an accumulator and get a free accumulator bet.
  • Bet a winning accumulator and the bookie will add a percentage to our winnings.
    I wouldn't attempt to profit from a low percentage bonus such as 10% or 20% when trading accumulators.
    50% or 100% added winnings will be ok.
  • Bet an accumulator and get a refund if our accumulator is a loser.
    This last one may be described by your bookie as a "No Lose" offer.

Strategy :-
Bet the qualifying bet or bets with the bookie and lay the other end of those in Betfair or Betdaq,
OR bet and lay the qualifying accumulator bet.
Then bet and lay the free bet or the free accumulator to profit.
If the offer is Added Winnings or is a "No Lose" offer, no qualifying bet is involved, so we can go ahead and bet and lay the accumulator to profit that includes the bonus, cash refund, or or a free bet whatever the results of the events in our accumulator.

As with normal free bet offers for single runners, we can trade accumulator offers to profit.
The only difference is that we are dealing with more runners.
Note that I do not have a strategy for laying "One Leg Lets You Down" bookie refund offers.
You will need your own ideas to lay those to guaranteed profit.
I don't have an answer for those.

Process for betting and laying accumulators.
Select runners or football teams with time between each so that we know the result of one selection before we lay the next.
Bet the accumulator with the bookie, lay each runner in Betfair or Betdaq.
Lay each runner in turn, adjusting our lay stake a little if our lay odds change between events.
Hit a loser and that is end of trade. . . . . we have a losing bet but a successful lay.
Hit a winner and we need to lay again.
Our 2nd lay stake recovers the lay liabilities from hitting that first winner, to exit our trade if we hit a loser with our 2nd runner. . . . . . and so it goes on.

We either hit a loser at some point to exit our trade, or we hit all winners.
If we hit all winners with our accumulator, lay liabilities may be bigger or smaller than bet winnings, depending on the type of bookie accumulator offer that we are trading.
Either way, stake correctly and we can trade to profit with zero risk unless the bookie offer forces us to select events that all take place at the same time. . . . . see below.
Commission is built into the spreadsheet calculations.

Choose suitable runners, stake correctly, and we can lay every runner if necessary without getting into difficulties.
Hit a loser at any point, or even hit all winners with our accumulator, and we can take advantage of the bookie offer.
With a little practice, there should be nothing to fear from trading accumulator refund offers if we stake correctly.

Bookie accumulator refund and bonus trades are just the same as bookie refund trades of a single runner :-

  • We may have a small loss from trading our qualifying bet or bets.
  • Whatever the bookie offer, we expect to recover any "Qualifier" loss and show a profit on top when we get the refund or bonus payment.

If the terms of an offer make it impossible for us to lay runners or teams with time between events, we will need to trade runners that all kick off at the same time, and trade them all at once, "In Play".
That kind of trade involves some risk.
A Dutching spreadsheet is also supplied to show the staking for that and is described in the videos below.

Copyright notice.  In the videos below, Betfair content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Sporting Exchange Limited.  The Sporting Exchange Limited.
Copyright notice. In the videos below, BETDAQ content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Global Betting Exchange.

  1. Video 1 demonstrates the 2 spreadsheets in my "Lay an Accumulator" Excel file.
  2. How to lay  various different bookie accumulator refund offers - - uses the Profit Target sheet.
  3. Video 2 describes the Dutching sheet again (an earlier version), but demonstrates laying a treble at about 5 minutes onwards.
  4. Video 3 describes 5 of my trades and shows the stakes in my account.
    Note that this spreadsheet file is only available on
    my Multiples web page. not as per the comment in the 3rd video.
    Note also that Dortmund only scored one goal, not 2  . . . . a mistake in my commentary.


    For a BIGGER VIEW of these videos, click the small icon bottom right with 4 square corners.
    To move from one video to the next, click the double arrow icon, bottom left of the YouTube screen.

 

Lay accumulators spreadsheet       10

Use a spreadsheet to trade bookie Accumulator Refund and Bonus offers by laying one runner at a time, or use a 2nd spreadsheet to lay several selections of an accumulator that all kick off at around the same time.
Links to YouTube videos are included within the Excel file.

After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.
Note.  If the file appears to be locked when you open it, just re-name the file and it should then work ok for you.

10

Exchange to Exchange refunds and bonus payments. . . . . . .Zero risk.

1.  Lose Only refund    2.  Percentage Added to winnings     3.  Free exchange bet.
The 3 sheets described below show the staking required to balance our trade for an equal profit or loss.
Using the stakes shown, it doesn't matter whether we hit a winner or a loser, the profit will be the same.
For best results of course, trade with Bet odds higher than lay odds.

Exchange to exchange "Lose Only" refunds. . . . . . Zero risk.
Occasionally, Betfair or Betdaq offer a refund if we hit a loser, or have losses.
As usual with bookie refunds, we can trade these offers to profit whether we hit a winner or a loser, but sometimes Betfair or Betdaq may stipulate that we need to hit more than one loser before we qualify for the refund.
We can work around that - - -as described below.

These trades are just a straight forward bet with one exchange and lay in the other.
The spreadsheet below can be used to bet in Betfair and lay in Betdaq, or the other way around.
Different commission rates can be set in the spreadsheet and are built into both sides of the calculations.
These offers may not come along very often, but when they do, they are definitely worth looking at.
Basic strategy.
Bet in one exchange and lay the same runner in the other.
It doesn't matter if we hit a winner or a loser, and it doesn't matter if our bet odds are a bit bigger than our lay odds.
Stake correctly and we can have guaranteed winnings with zero risk.

The video below was put together in advance of the Cheltenham 2011 meeting.
The first 4 minutes of the video describe the spreadsheet inputs and how the staking works.
At about 4:30 minutes into the video I describe how to take advantage of a refund offer from Betdaq that was available for the Cheltenham 2011 meeting.
The Betdaq offer was, hit 3 losers and get a refund of our bet stake if we hit a loser in our 3rd race.
The strategy described in the video to trade that offer was :-

  • Bet and lay losers in 2 races using small stakes.
    A small loss is expected from each of those 2 trades.

  • Bet and lay the 3rd race as a "Lose Only" refund, staking with a BIG bet stake equal to the maximum of the refund.
    In this 3rd race, we stake for a win or lose profit that will recover the small losses from the previous 2 trades, and show a profit on top.

  • If we can hit 2 losers in the first 2 races, it doesn't matter whether we hit a winner or a loser in the 3rd race.
    Win or lose in that 3rd "Lose Only" refund race,  a profit will be shown over the 3 trades combined.

I put a write-up and this video on my Blog well in advance of the Cheltenham meeting that year, with the spreadsheet for sale, and removed it after the Cheltenham meeting had finished.

 

Exchange to exchange "Winnings added" bonus . . . . . . Zero risk.
Occasionally, Betfair or Betdaq offer to add a bonus percentage to our Bet winnings or our Lay profit.
The Excel file described below contains spreadsheets to cover both types of offer. 

Usually, winnings can be either bet winnings or lay winnings.
As usual, we can trade these bonus payment offers to profit whether we hit a winner or a loser.
These trades are just a straight forward bet with one exchange and lay in the other.
The spreadsheet below can be used to bet in Betfair and lay in Betdaq, or the other way around.
Different commission rates can be set in the spreadsheet and are built into both sides of the calculations.
These offers may not come along very often, but when they do, they are definitely worth looking at.
These offers don't pay quite as well as "Lose Only" offers.
Note that for best results, you will need to use large stakes for these winnings added trades, but stake correctly and these are zero risk trades.
Basic strategy.
Bet in one exchange and lay the same runner in the other.
It doesn't matter if we hit a winner or a loser, and it doesn't matter if our bet odds are a bit bigger than our lay odds.
Stake correctly and we can have guaranteed winnings with zero risk.

Exchange Free Bet . . . . . . Zero risk.
Occasionally, Betfair or Betdaq will offer a free bet.
Usually we will need to place a qualifying bet before we qualify for the free bet, but trading a deposit or a free bet between exchanges can be done very cheaply, so profits from exchange free bets are very good.
It doesn't matter if the free bet stake is, or is not returned with winnings - - - exchange free bets pay very well and should not be missed.
Basic strategy.
The strategy once again is a straight bet with one exchange and lay in the other.
It doesn't matter if we hit a winner or a loser, and it doesn't matter if our bet odds are a bit bigger than our lay odds.
Stake correctly and we can have guaranteed winnings with zero risk.

Three Exchange to exchange refund and bonus spreadsheets       15
Use these spreadsheets to trade exchange offers of a :
  • Refund if we hit a loser or have losses . . . . includes a video description
  • A percentage added to winnings . . . . includes a video description
  • A free bet in the exchange.

The spreadsheets show the staking required, to bet and lay between 2 exchanges to take advantage of these offers, with commission rates built into both sides of the trade.

After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.


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