Ideas for Betfair trading - Football.

STRATEGIES AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FOOTBALL TRADING


Down to       1 or 2 Losers strategy.           Hedge the 1-1 score line.        Buy Time in the Correct Score market

Be A Bookie spreadsheet.
This spreadsheet shows the stakes required to bet or lay up to 25 selections for an equal profit or loss whatever the outcome of your event.
This sheet can be used to show the Bet or Lay stakes for Dutching of any event.
The examples below are shown to demonstrate what can be done using these spreadsheets.

You could use this sheet to Lay several score lines in the Correct Score market, with the intension of laying all other scores after some time has passed in the game and some of the odds of scores of that you have not layed have dropped.

Basic strategy.

  • Before the kick off, make a note of the bet and lay odds of Under and Over 1.5 goals and Under and Over 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5 goals.

  • Before the Kick Off, Lay all the scores EXCEPT  0-0, 1-0 and 0-1.
    Whilst the score remains 0-0, the odds of all 3 of those scores will decrease as time passes in every game throughout the First half.

  • After time has passed in the game and the score is still 0-0, Lay 0-0, 1-0, and 0-1 for a guaranteed winnings.

  • OR, lay Under 1.5 Goals in the Over / Under 1.5 Goals market.
    Before the Kick Off we had layed all the scores Over 1.5 Goals, so by laying Under 1.5 goals, we have layed all possible scores.

Below, the Be A Bookie spreadsheet shows the stakes required to start this strategy.
We lay all scores except 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 for the  stakes shown for an equal liability of 29.81 if we hit the winning score with one of our lays.
If the game ends 0-0, 1-0, pr 0-1, and we do nothing further, all our lays are successful and we clean up with a profit equal to the total of our lay stakes 70.19 shown at the bottom of the spreadsheet.

Stake To Return   100.00  
Betfair     Liability
Name ODDS Adjust Stakes or Profit
0-0        
0-1        
0-2 48.00   2.08 -29.81
0-3 110.00   0.91 -29.81
1-0        
1-1 8.80   11.36 -29.81
1-2 25.00   4.00 -29.81
1-3 130.00   0.77 -29.81
2-0 8.00   12.50 -29.81
2-1 10.50   9.52 -29.81
2-2 26.00   3.85 -29.81
2-3 110.00   0.91 -29.81
3-0 16.00   6.25 -29.81
3-1 16.50   6.06 -29.81
3-2 46.00   2.17 -29.81
3-3 140.00   0.71 -29.81
Any 11.00   9.09 -29.81
Over 1.5        
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
Total stakes     70.19  

Below.  20 minutes has passed in the game and the score is still 0-0.
We exit the trade with one lay, by laying Under 1.5 Goals at odds of 2.64 for a stake of 37.88 in the Under 1.5 Goals market.
We now show a profit of 8.07 whatever the result of the game.

Stake To Return   100.00  
Betfair     Liability
Name ODDS Adjust Stakes or Profit
0-0        
0-1        
0-2 48.00   2.08 8.07
0-3 110.00   0.91 8.07
1-0        
1-1 8.80   11.36 8.07
1-2 25.00   4.00 8.07
1-3 130.00   0.77 8.07
2-0 8.00   12.50 8.07
2-1 10.50   9.52 8.07
2-2 26.00   3.85 8.07
2-3 110.00   0.91 8.07
3-0 16.00   6.25 8.07
3-1 16.50   6.06 8.07
3-2 46.00   2.17 8.07
3-3 140.00   0.71 8.07
Any 11.00   9.09 8.07
Over 1.5 2.64   37.88 8.07
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
Total stakes     108.07  

An alternative exit would be to Bet Over 1.5 Goals at 20 minutes whilst the score was still 0-0.
On the top screen shot, we have Total Lay stakes of 70.19.
The Lay odds of Under 1.5 before the Kick Off were 1.40, which must be the equivalent to all our lay odds before the Kick Off combined.
The Bet Odds of Under 1.5 Goals at 20 minutes were 1.64.
We can input the bet odds of 1.64, Lay odds of 1.40 and Lay stake of 70.19 into the Hedge Your Bets spreadsheet to show the bet stake required over a range of odds to Hedge our whole trade to profit and exit the market.
Note that since I have not used the actual odds obtained from the Correct Score market for this demonstration, the profit shown will be approximate.

Below, I have entered the Lay stake 70.19 and bet and lay odds into the Hedge Your Bets spreadsheet.
The sheet shows the Bet stakes required to equalize the whole trade with a single bet for guaranteed winnings whatever the result of the game.
For example, if we get matched at Bet odds of 1.62 for 62.21, we show a profit before commission of 9.78 whatever the result.
If we get matched at Bet odds of 1.60 for a stake of 62.99 we win 9.00 or if we get matched at odds of 1.65 for 61.08 we win 10.91.
This sheet has the facility to include commission in the Win Lose columns if you choose.
Commission has been set to zero for this demonstration.
The range of odds and stakes saves time whilst trading - there is no need to update the odds in the sheet to match odds movements on Betfair.

Bet odds Lay odds Initial 70.19
1.62 1.40    
     
Odds Increasing LAY FIRST -  BET 2nd
BET Win Lose  
60.66 9.53 9.53  
     
Bet odds Bet stake    
1.55 63.40 6.79 6.79
1.56 62.99 7.20 7.20
1.57 62.59 7.60 7.60
1.58 62.19 8.00 8.00
1.59 61.80 8.39 8.39
1.60 61.42 8.77 8.77
1.61 61.03 9.16 9.16
1.62 60.66 9.53 9.53
1.63 60.29 9.90 9.90
1.64 59.92 10.27 10.27
1.65 59.56 10.63 10.63
1.66 59.20 10.99 10.99
1.67 58.84 11.35 11.35
1.68 58.49 11.70 11.70
1.69 58.15 12.04 12.04
1.70 57.80 12.39 12.39

Another option in this game would be to bet just a few of the scores that we have layed, leaving all our other lays in place.
For example, whilst the score remains 0-0, we could bet 1-1, 2-0 and 2-0 for very little loss at 20 minutes.
The score would then need to get to 3-0, 0-3 or any score with 3 goals or more before we would be in danger of a payout from our lays, and to exit, we would need to be looking to either bet or lay in the Under / Over 2.5 goals market.

If goals are scored.
If we had simply bet or layed in the Under / Over markets before the Kick off, our trading options would be quite limited.
However, since we have layed Correct Scores, Hedge our lays by betting scores ahead of what is happening on the pitch.
For example, if we have bet 1-1, 2-0 and 0-2 at 20 minutes, we now only have lays on scores with 3 goals or more.
Those bets on 1-1, 2-0 and 0-2 will have eaten into our Total Lay stakes of 70.19
but if there are not a lot of goals, we may not need to bet further scores to keep our laying of scores ahead of what is happening on the pitch.

Also, as you bet scores to exit, you will have further exit opportunities in the Over / Under markets of 1.5 goals, 2.5 goals, 3.5 and 4.5 goals, so you will have the opportunity to exit with a single bet or lay.
I haven't traded in this particular way, but I have traded something similar using Dutching of Correct Scores and betting and laying of the Over and Under markets.

Target 1, 2, 3 or 4 selections to lose using the 1 or 2 Losers spreadsheet.
The 1 or 2 Losers sheet has been updated to target up to 4 selections to lose.  It's now a 1 to 4 Losers spreadsheet.
This spreadsheet package shows the stakes required to Lay up to 20 selections, with reduced liabilities on 1, 2, 3, or 4 of those selections.
All lays that are not your targeted selections will show a profit, once you lay more than 2 of them.
As you lay more selections, your liabilities on your targeted lays decrease, and your profits on additional lay increase.
All the others, although you have layed them, will give you a profit.  The more of them that you lay, the bigger your profits.

Target one selection to lose.
Suppose we decide that a football match is very one sided, and that we expect the favourite team to win with plenty of goals being scored.
We could lay the 0-0 score in the Correct Score market, but usually, the odds of 0-0 are quite big and we feel we would be more comfortable with lower liabilities.
As we expect a Home Team win and plenty of goals, we could target the score not to be 0-0 at Half Time.
We lay the 0-0 score in the Half Time Score market.
Then, also in Half Time Score, we lay other scores for an Away win at Half Time for small amounts.
This small lays have 3 effects.

  • They reduce our liability on a 0-0 result at half Time.

  • They increase our lay profit if the score is not 0-0 at Half Time and the Home tem is winning.

  • A downside is that if the Away Team are ahead at Half Time, the profit from our successful lays is smaller.

Below, we target the 0-0 score in Half Time Scores, and lay other scores of the least favoured of the 2 teams to reduce our liabilities of our 0-0 lay.
Note that in a live situation there would be some messing about to place lays below the minimum 2 at this level of staking.
Increase the size of your 0-0 Lay stake, and all the other stakes will increase on the spreadsheet.
We have reduced our liability on a 0-0 result at Half Time by placing small lay amounts on  other scores.
We have not layed 1-1 and 1-0.
Our liability or profit for each score line is shown in the end column on the right.
If the score at Half Time is 0-0, we have liabilities of 30.75.
If the score at half Time is one of the other scores that we have layed, we show a profit.  EG. At a score of 0-1 we win 3.94.

If the score at half Time is one of the scores that we have not layed, 1-1 or 1-0, all our lays are successful and we clean up with a profit equal to the total of all our lays shown at the bottom of the sheet highlighted in green 26.85..

Betfair    
Name Lay Odds Adjust Stakes Net Liability
0-0 2.88   20.00 -30.75
1-1        
2-2 130.00   0.16 6.36
1-0        
2-0 12.50   1.74 4.86
2-1 29.00   0.71 5.83
0-1 8.40   2.70 3.94
0-2 55.00   0.37 6.16
1-2 55.00   0.37 6.16
Any Other Score 26.00   0.80 5.75
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
If ALL successful Lays   26.85  

Target 2 selections to lose.  Correct Score strategy for trading a football match.
Suppose you anticipate that a football match will not produce many goals.
You could decide to Lay a score with plenty of goals, but to a lay at big odds will give you big liabilities if things go wrong.
An alternative is to use the 1 or 2 Losers spreadsheet to target a couple of high scores, and lay small amounts on other big score lines to reduce the liabilities of those 2 targeted lays.
As an example, take the European Cup semi final, Barcelona - Chelsea, April 28th 2009.
We now that this game ended 0-0 of course, but before the game, there was plenty of speculation that this game would be very competitive, with Chelsea looking to stop Barcelona scoring, whilst hoping to score an "Away Goal".

With that in mind before the Kick Off, we might expect that both teams would be satisfied with a winning score of 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1.
We could lay any 2 scores above with 2 or more goals, and reduce our liabilities on those 2 scores by laying other high scores using the 2 Losers spreadsheet.
Example.
We anticipate Chelsea playing very defensively so we hope that they will stop Barcelona from scoring more than one goal.
We target the scores 2-0 and 2-1 and lay them.
Then we lay other scores with more than 2 goals, but stake so that those scores make a profit using the 2 Losers spreadsheet.
Below, we have layed all the scores except 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1.
We have targeted the scores 2-0 and 2-1 to lose, and layed all the other scores with 2 or more goals for small amounts that reduce our liability on those 2 scores.
Our liability or profit for each score line is shown in the end column on the right.
If the game ends 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1, we clean up with all our lays being successful (since we have not layed those scores), and win the "All successful lays" amount shown at the bottom of the sheet highlighted in green 31.38.
For example, if the winning score was 0-0 we win 31.38.  Result 1-1 we win 8.24.  Result 1-0 we lose 61.53.
To make this basic strategy pay, using these odds as an example, you would need to be lucky enough not to trade games that ended 2-0 or 2-1.
In all other games, you would be a winner.
If you could hit 2 games ending 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1, you could then afford to hit one game ending 2-0, or 2-1 (before commission deductions).

Betfair   20.00 << Initial stake
Name Lay Odds Adjust Stakes Net Liability
2-0 9.00   10.32 -61.53
2-1 9.60   9.68 -61.53
0-2 46.00   0.44 10.39
0-3 160.00   0.13 10.69
       
1-1 8.40   2.70 8.24
1-2 25.00   0.83 10.02
1-3 80.00   0.25 10.57
       
       
2-2 23.00   0.91 9.94
2-3 65.00   0.31 10.51
3-0 18.50   1.14 9.72
3-1 17.50   1.21 9.66
3-2 34.00   0.61 10.23
3-3 75.00   0.27 10.55
Any Unquoted 8.80   2.56 8.37
0-0        
0-1        
1-0        
If ALL successful Lays   31.38  

Hedge the 1-1 score line.
In a football match, you could bet the 1-1 score line before the kick off, with the intention of Laying 1-1 at lower odds after a goal has been scored.
The draw backs are :-

  • The odds may not shorten enough if the goal is scored early, or by a strongly fancied team, or 2 quick goals scored by the same team take the score to 2-0 or 0-2.

Those are the risks, but a Bet first strategy such as that, offers bigger profits than a Lay first strategy for the same initial stake.
If you Lay first, your Hedge profit can never be bigger than your Lay stake.
Bet first, and your profit can be much bigger than your initial Bet stake.

This example of trading the 1-1 score line of The Champion's League Final 2008, Man Utd v Chelsea shows the odds that I traded on that game..
Bet 1-1 at odds of 7.0 before the kick off, with an insurance bet on 0-0 at odds 6.8.
Stake on 1-1 = 20.  Stake on 0-0 = 3.45.

Whilst there is no score, we break even with a win on 0-0.  3.45 x 5.8 = 20.01.
Man Utd scored after 26 minutes.
The odds of 1-1 dropped to around 5.0, with 5.3 being freely available at 35 minutes.
We could Hedge and exit the market if we choose.
Bet winnings = 20 x 6 = 120.  Lay 26.43 at 5.3, liability = 4.3 x 26.42 =  113.61.
If the score remains 1-0, win 120 less 113.61 = + 6.39 less 3.45 losing bet on 0-0 = + 2.94.
If another goal is scored, successful Lay on 1-1 26.42, less losing bets, 20 + 3.45 = + 2.97.
2.97 on initial stakes of 23.45 = 12.66% profit, a very respectable percentage return on a trade.

Wait a bit longer, and despite 2 near misses by Man Utd., Chelsea equalize at 45 minutes.
At Half Time, odds of 3.0 are available for the 1-1 score line, with 15 minutes to complete the trade before play resumes.
Lay 46.67 at odds of 3.0 and exit the market.
Bet winnings = 20 x 6 = 120.  Lay 46.67 at 3.0, liability = 2 x 46.67 =  93.34.
If the score remains 1-1, win 120 less 93.34 = + 26.66 less 3.45 losing bet on 0-0 = + 23.21 profit.
If another goal is scored, successful Lay on 1-1 46.67, less losing bets, 20 + 3.45 = + 23.22 profit.
23.21 on initial stakes of 23.45 = 98.97% profit, an excellent percentage return on a trade.

Compare this Bet First strategy with a Lay First strategy using the same odds, and initial Lay stake of 20.
It is mathematically impossible for a Lay First Hedge profit to be more than the initial 20.
Lay 20 at 3.0 for liabilities of 20 x 2 = 40.
Bet 8.57 at 7.0 for Bet winnings of 51.42.
Guaranteed winnings :- Win 51.42 less Lay liabilities of 40 = + 11.42.
                Lose.  Successful Lay 20  less losing Bet 8.57 = + 11.43.
With a lay First strategy, your initial liabilities are 40 compared to 20 if Betting First, with profits being 11.42 if Laying First, but 26.67 if Betting First.

______________________________________________________

Use the Hedge 3 Bets spreadsheet to Buy Time in the Correct Score Market.
This is a Hedging strategy, followed by a straight Lay.

The aim of this strategy is to make a small Hedge profit, and then place a Lay, using that small Hedge profit as insurance against an unsuccessful Lay.
If the odds of our Lay shorten too much, we exit the market and Break Even on the trades as a whole.

Using the Hedge 3 Bets spreadsheet, we can keep track of our position across more than one market, and work out the Break Even odds if we need to exit the market for Zero loss on the trades as a whole.

If a goal is scored before the odds shorten to the Break Even odds, we have a successful Lay plus our Hedge profit.
If a goal is NOT scored before the odds shorten to the Break Even odds, we Bet at the Break Even odds to exit the market, with Zero loss on our trade as a whole.

You could Bet and Lay before the Kick Off for a small Hedge profit.
The safest time to trade an "In Play" football match is during Half Time, when no goals can be scored.
During Half Time, there is usually a bit of movement of the odds, which offers a good opportunity to Hedge.
In the Correct Score market for instance, the odds of the current score line are likely to be reasonably low, depending of course, on what has been happening on the pitch.

An advantage of Hedging the odds of the current score in the Correct Score market, is that we can be pretty sure that the odds will continue to shorten, once the game re-starts, unless one of the teams scores a quick goal.
So, if we use a Bet First Hedging strategy, we can be pretty confident of completing our Hedge if the Lay part of our Hedge doesn't get matched during Half Time.
If our Lay doesn't get matched during Half Time, we will probably get matched shortly after the re-start.

Once we have a bit of profit from a successful Hedge, we can use that profit as insurance to cover a Lay.
We can afford to go into the red to the amount we have made from our Hedge.
We can afford to Lay High and Bet Low, but exit the market once the odds reach the Break Even level.
In this way, we can leave our Lay whilst the odds shorten, knowing that we can exit the market with no loss from the overall trade.

Strategy.  This example uses the Correct Score market, but you could use other markets in a similar way.

  • In the Correct Score market, during Half Time, Bet the current score line by offering longer odds than the odds available highlighted in Blue.

  • In the Correct Score market, during Half Time, Lay the current score line by offering shorter odds than the odds available highlighted in Pink.

  • At a time of your choice, depending on your reading of the game, Lay the current score line, (providing you think another goal will be scored).

  • Alternatively, you could Lay a different market such as Under / Over, Total Goals etc.
    Use the Hedge 3 Bets spreadsheet to trade across different markets, and keep track of your overall position.

  • On the spreadsheet, enter odds below your Lay odds to determine the Break Even odds.

  • If a goal is scored before the odds reach the Break Even point, you have a successful Lay to add to your original profit.

  • If a goal is not scored before the odds reach the Break Even point, Bet at the Break Even odds to exit the market with Zero loss on your overall trade.

Example.  Bets and Lays placed are shown at the bottom of the spreadsheet.
Individual market positions, and Combined market positions are shown at the top.
Below, are trades from the Croatia - Germany game, Euro 2008 June 12th 2008.
Trade the Draw before the Kick Off, Lay 100, Bet 98.57 for a small 1.43 profit.
During the First Half, trade Germany, Lay 3, Bet 2.85 for an additional 0.15 profit.
During Half Time, trade the 1-0 score line Bet 20, Lay 20.93 for 0.93 profit.    Total  profit on any result  2.50

Win Lose   Combined Market Position          
1.42 1.43 Draw Draw Germany 1-0          
0.15 0.15 Germany 2.50 2.51 2.51          
0.93 0.93 1-0                
                     
Bet Bet Lay 1.43 Bet Bet Lay   Bet Bet Lay  
Stake Odds Stake Hedge Stake Odds Stake Hedge Stake Odds Stake Hedge
0.00 3.30   1.43   3.80       1.83 0.00 0.93
0.00 3.35   1.43   3.85       1.84 0.00 0.93
0.00 3.40   1.43   3.90       1.85 0.00 0.93
0.00 3.45   1.43   3.95       1.86 0.00 0.93
0.00 3.50   1.43   4.00       1.87 0.00 0.93
0.00 3.55   1.43   4.05       1.88 0.00 0.93
0.00 3.60   1.43   4.10       1.89 0.00 0.93
0.00 3.65   1.43   4.15       1.90 0.00 0.93
0.00 3.70   1.43   4.20       1.91 0.00 0.93
                     
Draw Germany 1-0
Bet odds Stake LAY Odds Stake Bet odds Stake LAY Odds Stake Bet odds Stake LAY Odds Stake
3.50 98.57 3.45 100.00 4.00 2.85 3.80 3.00 4.50 20.00 4.30 20.93
                     
                     

Below.  After half Time, Lay the 1-0 score line for 3.
The Break Even odds were 1.87 to lose 2.49, the profit so far from Hedging, (2.50 shown above).
If no goal is scored and the odds shorten to 1.87, Bet 6.42 to break even, with Zero loss on the overall trades.

Win Lose   Combined Market Position          
1.42 1.43 Draw Draw Germany 1-0          
0.15 0.15 Germany 5.50 5.51 -6.49          
-8.07 3.93 1-0                
                     
Bet Bet Lay 1.43 Bet Bet Lay   Bet Bet Lay  
Stake Odds Stake Hedge Stake Odds Stake Hedge Stake Odds Stake Hedge
0.00 3.30   1.43   3.80     6.56 1.83   -2.63
0.00 3.35   1.43   3.85     6.52 1.84   -2.59
0.00 3.40   1.43   3.90     6.49 1.85   -2.56
0.00 3.45   1.43   3.95     6.45 1.86   -2.52
0.00 3.50   1.43   4.00     6.42 1.87   -2.49
0.00 3.55   1.43   4.05     6.38 1.88   -2.45
0.00 3.60   1.43   4.10     6.35 1.89   -2.42
0.00 3.65   1.43   4.15     6.32 1.90   -2.39
0.00 3.70   1.43   4.20     6.28 1.91   -2.35
                     
Draw Germany 1-0
Bet odds Stake LAY Odds Stake Bet odds Stake LAY Odds Stake Bet odds Stake LAY Odds Stake
3.50 98.57 3.45 100.00 4.00 2.85 3.80 3.00 4.50 20.00 4.30 20.93
                  4.00 3.00
                     
                     

Below.  Croatia scored at 62 minutes for a successful Lay of 1-0.  Profit 3.     Total 1-0 profit  3.93.
Luckily, the 1-0 odds never got anywhere near 1.87.
Delete the odds of the Lay of 1-0, read Croatia instead of 1-0, and there is a profit of 5.51 no-matter what the outcome of the game.
The profit can also be seen if the individual Win - Lose columns are added together.

Win Lose   Combined Market Position          
1.42 1.43 Draw Draw Germany 1-0          
0.15 0.15 Germany 5.50 5.51 5.51          
3.93 3.93 1-0                
                     
Bet Bet Lay 1.43 Bet Bet Lay   Bet Bet Lay  
Stake Odds Stake Hedge Stake Odds Stake Hedge Stake Odds Stake Hedge
0.00 3.30   1.43   3.80       1.83 0.00 3.93
0.00 3.35   1.43   3.85       1.84 0.00 3.93
0.00 3.40   1.43   3.90       1.85 0.00 3.93
0.00 3.45   1.43   3.95       1.86 0.00 3.93
0.00 3.50   1.43   4.00       1.87 0.00 3.93
0.00 3.55   1.43   4.05       1.88 0.00 3.93
0.00 3.60   1.43   4.10       1.89 0.00 3.93
0.00 3.65   1.43   4.15       1.90 0.00 3.93
0.00 3.70   1.43   4.20       1.91 0.00 3.93
                     
Draw Germany 1-0
Bet odds Stake LAY Odds Stake Bet odds Stake LAY Odds Stake Bet odds Stake LAY Odds Stake
3.50 98.57 3.45 100.00 4.00 2.85 3.80 3.00 4.50 20.00 4.30 20.93
                    3.00
                     
                     

Many thanks for your interest in my web sites, and good luck with your trading.

 

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