Football strategies with spreadsheets for Betfair trading.
The football strategies shown here can be used to
trade different markets on Betfair, Betdaq or a similar betting
exchange.
Football odds are very predictable in
relation to goals and time.
All these football strategies rely on goals being scored,
and time passing in the game.
The football strategies shown here
have been developed using Betfair football markets.
You could use Betfair to just Bet or Lay in the football
markets.
These trading methods employ different staking techniques
and insurance bets to give you trading options, depending on
your reading of what is happening in the game.
All betting strategies carry risk.
These trading strategies have been developed to reduce risk.
Trading
strategies for Betfair
Correct Score marketDutch and Hedge in 2 Betfair
markets
Dutch and Hedge in 2 Betfair markets
using balanced staking. Lay first or bet first spreadsheets for trading football.
If we bet and lay in 2
related markets, Betfair is unable to show our whole market position
across both markets. Our betting exchange will only show our market position in the 2
individual markets. Betfair cannot show losses or gains in 2 markets combined.
The 2 football "Dutch
and Hedge" spreadsheets below
overcome that problem by showing our total market position across
2 markets, including commission deductions. The Dutch and Hedge spreadsheets below
were designed for use in football markets but can be used for
trading across 2 related markets in any sport.
Trading related markets in Betfair.
Losses may not be
deducted before commission. When we trade across 2 or more markets in Betfair, we may think that
we see a profit from our total trade, but commission deductions can put our whole
trade into the red. That may not be obvious whilst we are trading. As you know, losses in one market are not deducted
before commission is deducted in a 2nd winning market, so trading
across 2 markets rather than in one can be expensive
Don't trade the same
thing twice.
If you trade across 2 or
more related markets, it is very important that you don't trade the
same thing twice. Example.
The Scores 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 are
the same as Under 1.5 Goals. It would be a mistake to lay those scores and also lay Under 1.5
Goals. If you make a mistake and Lay the same thing but in different
markets, you could have payout on the same result twice instead of
once. If you bet on the same thing and don't hit a winner, you will have
more losing bets than expected. It is very important that you are sure of the relationships between
Betfair markets. Betfair provides a wide range of markets for the same event,
especially for football matches. Many of these markets may be related in that you could bet in one
market and lay the same thing in another, or bet in both, or lay in
both. Watch an
Equivalent markets video
There's only one
winner. As a shortcut, these related markets can save us time whilst trading
and help to keep things simple. Unfortunately, these "Betfair shortcut markets" are of most benefit
to Betfair. If we trade in a single market, losses are deducted from winnings
before commission is paid. If we trade 2 related markets, losses in one market are not deducted
from winnings in a 2nd market, so commission will be paid on total
winnings in one market rather than total profit of the whole trade. Also, if we have a big loss in one market but smaller winnings in a
2nd market for an overall loss, we will still pay commission on the
total of the winnings profit that we have in our 2nd market. If the whole trade was all in the same market, there would be zero
commission to pay on a losing trade.
You are probably already
aware of those points above. The extra commission payments and losses not being deducted before
commission don't do us any favours, but will be big winners for
Betfair when they collect their commission. We all trade across 2 related markets at some point, but it can be
expensive. Keeping track of our whole trade across 2 markets and getting the
staking right is not easy.
__________________________________________
The spreadsheets below
were
designed specifically to trade Betfair's Correct Score market with
other related markets such as Match Odds, Under/Over Goals, etc. Dutching your trade with balanced staking, may be far easier
to work with than simply guessing the size of stakes "In Play"
during the heat of battle when the pressure is on. Down to video demonstrations
of these spreadsheets.
Spreadsheet feature
:- These spreadsheets are split into 2 sections. These individual sections can be used to Dutch and Hedge a single
market or 2 markets combined. Dutching stakes are balanced and across both markets for an equal
profit or loss before commission deductions. Hedge an individual selection and the spreadsheet shows the stake
required to trade that single selection for an equal profit or loss. Note that due to Excel calculations working to several
decimal places, returns may differ very slightly from what is shown
on your Betfair screen. Depending on stake sizes, there should normally only be a few pence
difference between the spreadsheet and Betfair.
Bet
first, lay 2nd - -
- - Dutch
and Hedge 2
Betfair markets£10 Use this spreadsheet to bet several selections in 2
different markets. Also, after placing bets, lay any individual bet to equalize that part of
the trade. The spreadsheet shows our whole market position after
commission deductions, across both
markets combined.
After
payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the
PayPal screen. PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain
the Excel spreadsheet file.
Use this spreadsheet to
show the stakes required to bet several selections for an equal profit or loss in one or 2 Betfair markets. Then, if you choose, as the odds change, lay to equalize individual
selections for an equal profit or loss on those selections. After betting, enter lay odds into the sheet for any of those
individual bets and the sheet shows the lay stake required to
equalize that individual selection for an equal profit or loss.
Our position is shown in the 2 single markets, and also across the 2
markets combined. Commission deductions are built into the spreadsheet.
___________________________________
Lay first, bet 2nd - -
- - Dutch
and Hedge 2
Betfair markets£10 Use this spreadsheet to lay several selections in 2
different markets. Also, after placing lays, bet any individual lay to equalize that part of
the trade. The spreadsheet shows our whole market position after
commission deductions, across both
markets combined.
After
payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the
PayPal screen. PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain
the Excel spreadsheet file.
Use this spreadsheet to
show the stakes required to lay several selections for an equal profit or loss in one or 2 Betfair markets. Then, if you choose, as the odds change, bet to equalize individual
selections for an equal profit or loss on those selections. After laying, enter bet odds into the sheet for any of those
individual lays and the sheet shows the bet stake required to
equalize that individual selection for an equal profit or loss.
Our position is shown in the 2 single markets, and also across the 2
markets combined. Commission deductions are built into the spreadsheet.
Video 1 demonstrates the spreadsheet
inputs and how it works using the Bet First spreadsheet.
Video 2 demonstrates the Lay First
spreadsheet. Spreadsheet inputs for this sheet are as demonstrated in video No.
1. For a BIGGER VIEW of these videos, click the small icon bottom right
with 4 square corners. To move from one video to the next, click the "Next" arrow, bottom
left of the YouTube screen.
Hedge Under 1.5 Goals with insurance. This is a Bet First
strategy in which we look to trade during the First Half of a football match. As you know, whilst the score remains 0-0, the odds of Under 1.5 Goals
drop as time passes in the game. A bet on Under 1.5 Goals before the Kick Off can be layed to profit at
anytime whilst the score remains 0-0.
After one goal is scored, either 1-0 or 0-1 in the Correct Score market
(whichever is still In Play) and Under 1.5 Goals, become equivalent markets. The odds of Under 1.5 Goals will be virtually the same as either 1-0 or 0-1 - -
- whichever is still In Play.
Quite often, after one goal in the First Half,
the market expects more goals, so the odds of Under 1.5 Goals can be bigger
after the first goal than they were before the Kick Off. In such a game, it may be impossible to lay Under 1.5 Goals to profit
immediately after a goal has been scored without trading to a sizeable loss. To exit to profit from such a trade usually involves sweating it out whilst we
wait for time to pass in the game and the odds of Under 1.5 Goals to drop. Whilst we are waiting, we run the risk of a second goal making our whole trade a
losing bet.
This "Under 1.5 Goals with insurance" strategy gets around that problem in
most games by trading the scores of 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 and using an insurance lay, instead of simply
betting and laying in the Under 1.5 Goals market. Basic strategy.
Before the Kick Off, bet scores in the
Correct Score market.
Before the Kick Off, place a lay as
insurance against a 0-0 result.
As the game progresses with a score of 0-0,
we look to exit the market by laying our bets, and betting our insurance lay
for an overall profit. As time passes in the game, we expect this profit to increase whilst the
score is 0-0.
If a goal is scored, Lay our one remaining
In Play score (either 1-0 or 0-1) in the Correct Score market to an overall profit
or an acceptable loss, to
exit the whole trade. Note that a goal after about 30 minutes can often be very good for this
strategy.
When we trade this strategy, we bet and
lay the very predictable odds of 0-0, 1-0 & 0-1. We look to exit to profit
whilst the score remains 0-0. If a goal is scored, the profit from our insurance lay will often enable
us to trade to profit without having to wait for time to pass in the
game
before placing our lay on 1-0 or 0-1 (whichever is still In Play) to exit our trade.
An early goal can cause problems. Also, as with any trade involving Under 1.5 Goals, 2 quick goals means
end of trade, but our insurance lay means that we don't lose our whole
bet stakes. We place our insurance lay to help us to trade to profit after one goal
and keep losses down to an acceptable level if the first goal is scored early in the game, or 2 quick goals are scored.
If we are able to select low scoring games
with no goals or only one goal in the First Half, this strategy may
produce consistent profits in the long term. For a description of how the odds perform in the Correct Score market,
follow this link. or click the
"Football Odds" tab at the top of this web page.
Hedge Under 1.5
Goals With Insurance Excel spreadsheets £10.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later
version to view these spreadsheets.
These spreadsheets show
the stakes required to :-
Dutch bet scores in the
Correct Score market to balance stakes before the Kick Off.
Hedge the 3
individual scores 0-0, 1-0 & 0-1
Links to
Videos describing this strategy are provided after purchase.
There is also a
detailed write-up.
After payment via
PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen. PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the
Excel spreadsheet file.
Hedge
Under 1.5 Goals With Insurance
spreadsheets price = £10. Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment
button below
One or two
losers. 1 Loser Strategy.In a horse race,
Bookies may Lay only a few runners, and have very small liabilities or no
liabilities at all on the outsiders. If an outsider wins the race, they clean up with very little
payout, or no payout at all.
Another strategy is
to Lay several runners but make only one targeted runner a loser. When you use this strategy, you are not Laying the whole
field, but just a few selections.
This is not the same as Laying a single selection in the
hope that it loses. Using this strategy you can Lay several scores in the
Correct Score
market, or several players in the First Goal Scorer market, and
win on every Lay except
your FIRST Lay. If you were Laying the Correct Score Market
:-
The only
way these Lays can lose is if you happen to pick the
winning score line with your FIRST Lay.
Lay as many score lines
as you like. The more you Lay, the bigger your profit.
Additionally, as with
all other Laying strategies that involve more than one
Lay, every Lay
you make reduces your liabilities.
In this case your only
liability will be on your First Lay.
As you make more Lays,
that liability is reduced, and the profit on every other
Lay increases.
If the match ends with a
score that you have not Layed,
you will have no payout whatsoever. You clean up, winning the total £££ of all your Lays.
Remember, your only losing Lay will be on the FIRST
score line that you Lay.
You will win on all the others.
It is
exactly the same if you Lay players in the First Goal Scorer Market
:-
You can target any player on the list not to score first.
Lay that
player, and Lay some others players that you think will
not score first.
These other
Lays will reduce your liabilities on your targeted
player.
Your
only losing Lay will be on the FIRST player that you
Lay. You will win on all the others.
You could also use this spreadsheet to Lay a number of horses in a
horse race, golfers in a golf tournament, darts players in a darts
competition etc.
Basic
Strategy. In the Correct score market, (or any other market of
your choice - horses, golf, tennis tournament etc.) :-
Before the kick -
off, decide which score line you will target to lose. You will be reducing your liabilities on that selection by
laying other scores.
Lay that score line,
and a few others.
Example. There are normally 17 score lines including "Any Other Score" that
we can Lay. We could Lay 4 score lines (for example), but only one will make a loss for
us.
We Lay our First score line,
which could be any one of the 17. Then we Lay a 2nd score line, a 3rd, and a 4th. We could carry on laying more score lines if we wish. These 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Lays reduce our liabilities on our First Lay,
just as any normal series of Lays would do, but if we stake correctly :-
If the winner does NOT come from the 4
scores that we have layed, we have 4 successful
lays, and we clean up, with no payout.
If the winner comes
from score lines 2, 3, or 4, we make a profit.
If our First score
line wins, we make a loss, but our liabilities have been reduced
by the successful lays on score lines 2, 3 and 4.
2 Losers Strategy. This strategy can be used to lay 2 (or more) score lines to lose (or
First Goal Scorers, horses etc.) Once again, we do not Lay the whole field, but a few score lines.. The procedure is exactly the same, but this time, 2 score lines are targeted to lose.
Liabilities on score lines 1
and 2 will be reduced by the additional Lays on score lines 3 upwards. This strategy of targeting 2 score lines, has 2 advantages, but one
obvious drawback :-
A large slice of
liability is reduced on score line 1 by the stake on score line 2.
A large slice of
liability is reduced on score line 2 by the stake on score line 1. This strategy is particularly effective if score lines 1 and 2 are at short
odds.
The downside is that
we have 2 score lines running against us instead of 1.
1 or 2 Losers Excel spreadsheets £10.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view these
spreadsheets.
These 1 or 2 Losers
spreadsheets calculate instantly the Lay stakes required to Lay
up to 20 selections to reduce the liability on either 1 or 2
target selections. You could of course use this spreadsheet for any event other than
a football match. This Excel file contains 2 separate spreadsheets for your
tenner.
1 loser spreadsheet Only the first
selection will have a negative liability. Once you lay more than 2
selections,
a profit will be made on selections 2 to
20.
2 losers spreadsheet Only the first 2
selections will have negative liabilities. Once you lay more than 3
selections,
a profit will be made on selections 3 to
20.
If none of the Layed
selections
win, you clean up with the total £££ of all the Lay amounts staked - you have
a "Skinner". The more
selections
you Lay :-
The less your liabilities
become on your target selections
The more profit you show
on other Layed selections
The bigger the payout on
a "Skinner" - a selection you haven't Layed.
After
payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant"
option on the PayPal screen. PayPal should then route you to a download web page
where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.
1 or 2 Losers
spreadsheets price = £10 Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment
button below
Correct Score market
Hedge 1-1.
This
Hedging strategy relies on a decrease in the odds of the 1-1 score line in the
Correct Score market, after a goal is scored or two goals are scored to get the
score to 1-1.
Whether you are
a seasoned trader or a beginner, this strategy offers quite a safe way of
trading.
Providing you stake correctly, you could make good percentage profits on
your initial stake if you are able to Hedge using this strategy.
An advantage of this
strategy is that it is a Bet First Hedge, rather than a Lay First Hedge.
Whenever you use a Lay First hedge (odds increasing), your
profit will always be less than your original Lay stake, but
with a Bet First hedge, (odds decreasing), your profit can
be bigger than your original Bet stake.
If events go against you, a
Dutching strategy is suggested to enable you to continue
trading in the match. Basic Strategy.
Before the kick-off,
place a 1-1 Bet in the
Correct Score market.
Place an Insurance
Bet.
Whilst there are no
goals, do nothing - you will break even.
After a goal is
scored, Lay your original 1-1 Bet score line to profit if the
Lay odds are lower than your original Bet odds.
Examples of
risks.
A goal may be scored
but the 1-1 odds may not shorten sufficiently to enable a
successful Hedge.
For example, the first goal may be scored very early in the
game, or if the game is looking very one-sided, the market may
judge that the losing side will not equalize to get the score to
1-1.
2 quick goals scored by the same
side can take the score to 2-0 or 0-2 before we have had time to
place our 1-1 Lay or exit strategy bets whilst the score is 1-0 or
0-1.
This type of problem of course applies to other strategies.
If you were trading the Draw in the Match Odds market, a quick goal by both sides taking the
score to 1-1, would cause trading problems.
Hedge 1-1 Correct Score
Excel spreadsheets £10.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later
version to view these
spreadsheets.
This spreadsheet can be
used to show
the stakes required to :-
Hedge a 1-1 score
line with an insurance bet.
Dutch the markets if
the odds do not shorten sufficiently for a successful Hedge in
the Correct score market.
Note that this
spreadsheet is also suitable for other Correct Score trades.
After payment via
PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the
Excel spreadsheet file.
Hedge 1-1 Correct
Score
spreadsheets price = £10.
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment
button below
Lay the Wiining Team.
This strategy involves both Dutching
and Hedging.
Insurance against a draw result or a win by the "Losing Team", is
provided by a Lay of the Winning Team. Theory. The aim of this strategy, is to have a winning bet on the final score in
the Correct Score market.
To do that at any time in the game, we could Bet the current
score, plus other scores as goals are scored.
If we continually Bet the current winning score as goals were scored, we
would of course soon Bet an over-round book and quite often make a loss
on our trades.
We can cut down on the number of Bets required, if we only have to Bet
on one team.
To keep the number of bets on different scores to a minimum, we can wait until late in the
game before entering the market.
To insure against a
Draw result or the Losing Team scoring goals and going on to win the
game, all we need is a very small insurance Lay on the winning team.
Insurance Lay.
If we Lay the Winning Team, that Lay would be successful if the result
was a Draw or a win for the team that was Losing when we placed our Lay.
By laying the winning team at very short odds, we can avoid having to
Bet draw score lines such as 1-1, 2-2, and all possible scores for the
team that was losing when we placed our Lay.
The cost of that Lay can be very small.
For example a Lay of £20 at odds of 1.04, carries a liability of only
minus £0.80.
If we enter the market at a
score of 1-0, and Lay the winning Team, we would have a successful Lay if
the Losing Team equalized or won the game.
To hit the winning score for the Winning Team, we only need to Bet the current score of 1-0,
plus 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, and Any Unquoted, but to Bet all those
possible scores probably wouldn't be profitable.
So, the idea is, to enter the market late in the game, especially at a 2
goal difference in the score, such as 2-0 or 0-2, and Bet the
current score and other scores as goals are scored, to make sure we Bet
the winning score result.
If the match ends in a
draw or a win for the "Losing Team", we have a successful Lay on the
"Winning Team".
Strategy.
Late in the
game, in the
Match Odds market, Lay the Winning Team.
In the Correct Score market,
Bet the current score line, plus the next 2 possible
scores..
As the game
progresses, Bet further score lines as
necessary in the Correct Score market..
Make sure
you Bet the final score result.
Example. Russia
- Sweden. Euro 2008. June 17th 2008. Russia won the
game 2-0.
Russia were leading 2-0 at 50 minutes.
Lay odds at 60 minutes for Russia were 1.09 in the Match Odds market.
Lay Russia £30 at 1.09 for a liability of
-£2.70.
In the Correct Score market, Bet the current score, 2-0, plus the
next 2 possible scores 3-0 and 2-1, for a win or lose profit of
£7.71.
Lay Odds
Lay Stake
Winning Team
Win
Lose
1.09
30.00
Russia
-2.70
30.00
Stake To Return
32.70
Overall
Betfair
BET
Correct Scores
Win
Lose
Scores
ODDS
Adjust
Stakes
Win
Lose
1-0
2-0
3.50
9.34
10.41
-22.29
7.71
7.71
3-0
5.00
6.54
10.41
-22.29
7.71
7.71
2-1
5.10
6.41
10.41
-22.29
7.71
7.71
3-1
3-2
Any Unqoted
Total stakes
22.29
Above is a snapshot of the
"Trade Winning Team" spreadsheet.
Enter the Lay Odds of the Winning Team,
plus the Lay stake. Enter the odds of the current score and the next 2 possible
scores for the Winning Team from the Correct Score market.
In this case, with the score of 2-0, the current score is 2-0, and the
next 2 possible scores for the winning team are 3-0 and 2-1.
Enter the odds, and the
spreadsheet shows the stakes required in the Correct Score market, for the
current score and the next 2 possible scores.
The potential Overall Win / Lose Gross profit is shown for the whole trade
across both Match Odds and Correct Score markets, in this case £7.71.
Timing of your
entry into the market is important.
If you enter the market late in the game, there is less time for goals to be
scored, but be aware that the odds of the current score and possibly the
next score up for the winning team will probably be shortening in the
Correct Score market.
A problem with this strategy is
that if you wait too long before entering the Match Odds and Correct Score
markets after a goal is scored,
for example
at a score of 2-0 or 0-2, the Match odds may stabilise, whilst the Correct
Score odds continue to shorten.
The effect of that is your potential profit may be reduced, especially if
more goals are scored.
So, ...... before entering the market, use the spreadsheet to check for the
potential profit.
An advantage of this strategy.
If you have Layed the
winning team and a goal is scored by the Losing Team before you have
placed Bets in the Correct Score market, the odds of the Winning
Team should lengthen to some degree.
This offers an excellent opportunity to Hedge out of the Match Odds
market with a Bet on the Winning Team at Higher odds than your Lay.
A Hedge spreadsheet is provided to show the stakes required for a
successful Hedge in this situation.
Trade the Winning
Team
Excel spreadsheet £5.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later
version to view these
spreadsheets.
Lay
the Winning Team in the Match Odds market, then enter the odds of the
next winning score lines for the Winning Team from the Correct Score market into the
spreadsheet.
This
spreadsheet shows the stakes required to :-
Bet the Current
Score
to an equal Win / Lose profit or liability at the odds you input.
Bet further scores
to equalize your trade.
An Adjust facility
allows you to favour a win or lose result.
Hedge spreadsheets
are also included in this package.
These can be used to exit the market at any time, or can be used
to trade the odds in any
market ..... Football, Horses, Cricket, Tennis, Snooker
..... anything.
Bet First or Lay First, makes no difference.
These spreadsheets show the stakes required to equalize your
trade.
"Exit
strategy" Feedback 9th March 2015. I suspect that Steven used Betfair's "Cash out" facility to
hedge his Correct Scores to profit.
That left him with a lay of the Winning Team in Match Odds of
£97 at odds of 1.02 for lay liabilities of only
minus £1.94.
"Derby were winning 2-0 just after half-time. I waited until 60mins or so
and backed the 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1 and layed Derby for a short price.
As
the game approached the 80th minute, my profit was showing at £15 if I
hedged out now (£24 if I let it run and score remained the same), but
Birmingham were looking dangerous on the attack and I didn't want to
have to back another score if a goal went in so I took the £15 profit on the
correct scores.
With minutes to go, in fact it was in injury time,
Birmingham scored and I was relieved I acted conservatively.
Then they
scored again!
Of course, I still had the £90+ lay on Derby.
A profitable
day.
I don't know what the precise stats are, but I do know a lot of
goals are scored in those last 10 mins of games, so if I am watching the
game it is certainly a tactic I will consider.
My profits will be
decreased, but potentially also my losses should another goal go in.
I
wouldn't expect a 2-0 to turn into a 2-2 often, but if it does its a
bonus!
I hope I explained it a little better - you can see the odds I used on
the Betfair sheet.
Its also interesting to note that according to the Betfair sheet the £15
profit was gained in just 12mins whilst the scores remained the same.
Cheers, Steven."
I have
entered Steven's bets and lays into a
demonstration spreadsheet below.
The Betfair Screen column shows what he would have
seen in Betfair.
The Hedge column shows the result of his 3 hedge
trades in Correct Score.
Add those together and he would have had Correct
Score profit of £15.02 before commission deductions,
and £14.27
after 5% commission.
The profit from his lay in Match Odds would be
£92.15
after commission deductions.
The "All 3 mkts Net" column shows the result of his
trade after commission deductions across the 2
markets.
With the game ending 2-2, the profit will have been
£106.42 after 5% commission in both markets, shown
for the score of 2-2.
Commission rate >>
5.00
All 3 mkts
Betfair
BET
Lay
Lay
Net
Betfair
Hedge
Name
Bet Odds
Stakes
Odds
Stake
P or L
Screen
P/L
0 - 0
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
0 - 1
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
0 - 2
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
0 - 3
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
1 - 0
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
1 - 1
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
1 - 2
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
1 - 3
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
2 - 0
3.05
34.00
1.94
53.46
106.42
15.02
19.45
2 - 1
8.60
11.00
9.80
9.66
106.43
15.02
-1.41
2 - 2
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
2 - 3
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
3 - 0
3.87
25.00
4.40
22.02
106.46
15.02
-3.02
3 - 1
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
3 - 2
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
3 - 3
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
Any Unquoted
0.00
0.00
106.42
15.02
14.27
< Market P & L
Match Odds
Hedge P & L
Derby
0.00
1.02
97.00
12.33
-1.94
0.00
0.00
106.42
97.00
0.00
0.00
106.42
97.00
0.00
0.00
106.42
97.00
92.15
< Market P & L
Feedback 20th Sept 2008
I just had to let you know how this one is going...........
I decided to give this a try today, instead of my usual laying of
the draw.
I have just finished my fourth bet this morning using this and have
varied in overall profit between $8 and $65.
My only "error" :- The first match I bet on, which is where the $8
profit came from, I didn't put enough on the Lay side of the winning
team.
All I can say is "wow"; this is as close to shooting fish in a
barrel as it gets!
I think Laying The Winning Team just became my "backbone" strategy
for football
trading.
Alan, Vancouver, Canada.
Feedback 24th March 2009. Now a
seasoned "Winning Team" trader :-
I am really having a lot of success with the "Trade Winning team"
spreadsheet.
I am usually able to get anywhere from $10 - $35 profit (based on
doing a $100 lay) most of the time.
The strategy I have found effective
is to back my correct scores at about 50 minutes, when the leading
team's price is usually 1.25 or so.
Unless they have a *huge* lead, I am usually able to cover all the
winning team's most likely correct scores (4-5 results) due to the
better prices.
Then I usually wait a bit for the winning team's price to come down
below 1.10 before placing my lay on the Winning Team.
I find this increases the profit by a
bit, since the initial back bets on the correct scores are based on
the higher price of the Winning Team (say 1.25), but if I can lay
off at 1.05 instead, it's a bit of a bonus.
It carries an element of risk, particularly if the winning team only
has a margin of one goal, but if I feel the trailing team might
score, I will usually include the potential draw score amongst my
"correct score" back bets.
For example, if the score is 2-1, I
will cover the 2-2 score as well, as insurance while I am waiting to
place the Lay on the Wining Team.
I have just simply found that by the time the leading team's price
is down around 1.10 and lower, the price on the current score is so
low that it kills a lot of the profit one could otherwise
potentially make.
I figure the
leading team will go on to win I would guess, at least 9 times out
of 10.
Of course, by waiting you run the
risk of the lay price going up should the other team equalize/go
ahead.
Alan, Vancouver, Canada.
This is Alan's strategy for bigger
profits but with slightly more risk :-
Late in the game, with one team
wining, Bet the current score, plus potential winning scores of
the winning team.
Wait for time to pass in the
game, and the Lay odds of the winning team should shorten.
Lay the winning team at shorter
odds than earlier in the game (when you Bet the Winning Team
score lines).
If the winning team wins, you
have a winning bet.
If the losing team wins or the game is drawn, you have a
successful Lay on what was "The winning team" when you placed
your bets and lays..
After
payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on
the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can
obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.
Trade the Winning Team Excel
spreadsheet price = £5.
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button below
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