Football trading strategiesHorse racing strategiesExcel Trading Spreadsheets

Football strategies with spreadsheets for Betfair trading.

The football strategies shown here can be used to trade different markets on Betfair, Betdaq or a similar betting exchange.

Football odds are very predictable in relation to goals and time.
All these football strategies rely on goals being scored, and time passing in the game.

The football strategies shown here have been developed using Betfair football markets.
You could use Betfair to just Bet or Lay in the football markets.
These trading methods employ different staking techniques and insurance bets to give you trading options, depending on your reading of what is happening in the game.

All betting strategies carry risk.
These trading strategies have been developed to reduce risk.

Trading strategies for Betfair

Correct Score market
New   Dutch and Hedge in 2 Betfair markets

Hedge Under 1.5 Goals with insurance

One or two losers.
Hedge 1-1.

Match Odds Market
Lay the Winning Team

Beat Your Bookie

Strategies for Trading Football Matches on Betfair

New   Dutch and Hedge in 2 Betfair markets using balanced staking.
Lay first or bet first spreadsheets for trading football.

If we bet and lay in 2 related markets, Betfair is unable to show our whole market position across both markets.
Our betting exchange will only show our market position in the 2 individual markets.
Betfair cannot show losses or gains in 2 markets combined.

The 2 football "Dutch and Hedge" spreadsheets below overcome that problem by showing our total market position across 2 markets, including commission deductions.
The Dutch and Hedge spreadsheets below were designed for use in football markets but can be used for trading across 2 related markets in any sport.

Trading related markets in Betfair.

  • Losses may not be deducted before commission.
    When we trade across 2 or more markets in Betfair, we may think that we see a profit from our total trade, but commission deductions can put our whole trade into the red.
    That may not be obvious whilst we are trading.
    As you know,  losses in one market are not deducted before commission is deducted in a 2nd winning market, so trading across 2 markets rather than in one can be expensive

  • Don't trade the same thing twice.
    If you trade across 2 or more related markets, it is very important that you don't trade the same thing twice.
    Example.
    The Scores 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 are the same as Under 1.5 Goals.
    It would be a mistake to lay those scores and also lay Under 1.5 Goals.
    If you make a mistake and Lay the same thing but in different markets, you could have payout on the same result twice instead of once.
    If you bet on the same thing and don't hit a winner, you will have more losing bets than expected.
    It is very important that you are sure of the relationships between Betfair markets.
    Betfair provides a wide range of markets for the same event, especially for football matches.
    Many of these markets may be related in that you could bet in one market and lay the same thing in another, or bet in both, or lay in both.
    Watch an  Equivalent markets video

  • There's only one winner.
    As a shortcut, these related markets can save us time whilst trading and help to keep things simple.
    Unfortunately, these "Betfair shortcut markets" are of most benefit to Betfair.
    If we trade in a single market, losses are deducted from winnings before commission is paid.
    If we trade 2 related markets, losses in one market are not deducted from winnings in a 2nd market, so commission will be paid on total winnings in one market rather than total profit of the whole trade.
    Also, if we have a big loss in one market but smaller winnings in a 2nd market for an overall loss, we will still pay commission on the total of the winnings profit that we have in our 2nd market.
    If the whole trade was all in the same market, there would be zero commission to pay on a losing trade.

You are probably already aware of those points above.
The extra commission payments and losses not being deducted before commission don't do us any favours, but will be big winners for Betfair when they collect their commission.
We all trade across 2 related markets at some point, but it can be expensive.
Keeping track of our whole trade across 2 markets and getting the staking right is not easy.

__________________________________________

The spreadsheets below were designed specifically to trade Betfair's Correct Score market with other related markets such as Match Odds, Under/Over Goals, etc.
Dutching your trade with balanced staking, may be far easier to work with than simply guessing the size of stakes "In Play" during the heat of battle when the pressure is on.
Down to video demonstrations of these spreadsheets.

Spreadsheet feature :-
These spreadsheets are split into 2 sections.
These individual sections can be used to Dutch and Hedge a single market or 2 markets combined.
Dutching stakes are balanced and across both markets for an equal profit or loss before commission deductions.
Hedge an individual selection and the spreadsheet shows the stake required to trade that single selection for an equal profit or loss.
Note that due to Excel calculations working to several decimal places, returns may differ very slightly from what is shown on your Betfair screen.
Depending on stake sizes, there should normally only be a few pence difference between the spreadsheet and Betfair.

Bet first, lay 2nd - - - -  Dutch and Hedge 2 Betfair markets       10
Use this spreadsheet to bet several selections in 2 different markets.
Also, after placing bets, lay any individual bet to equalize that part of the trade.
The spreadsheet shows our whole market position after commission deductions, across both markets combined.


Use this spreadsheet to show the stakes required to bet several selections for an equal profit or loss in one or 2 Betfair markets.
Then, if you choose, as the odds change, lay to equalize individual selections for an equal profit or loss on those selections.
After betting, enter lay odds into the sheet for any of those individual bets and the sheet shows the lay stake required to equalize that individual selection for an equal profit or loss.

Our position is shown in the 2 single markets, and also across the 2 markets combined.
Commission deductions are built into the spreadsheet.

___________________________________

Lay first, bet 2nd - - - -  Dutch and Hedge 2 Betfair markets       10
Use this spreadsheet to lay several selections in 2 different markets.
Also, after placing lays, bet any individual lay to equalize that part of the trade.
The spreadsheet shows our whole market position after commission deductions, across both markets combined.


Use this spreadsheet to show the stakes required to lay several selections for an equal profit or loss in one or 2 Betfair markets.
Then, if you choose, as the odds change, bet to equalize individual selections for an equal profit or loss on those selections.
After laying, enter bet odds into the sheet for any of those individual lays and the sheet shows the bet stake required to equalize that individual selection for an equal profit or loss.

Our position is shown in the 2 single markets, and also across the 2 markets combined.
Commission deductions are built into the spreadsheet.

Copyright noticeIn the videos below, any Betfair content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Sporting Exchange Limited.  The Sporting Exchange Limited.

The videos below demonstrate the Dutching part of these 2 spreadsheets.
Follow this link to view these videos individually on YouTube. or watch them here on this web page.

  1. Video 1 demonstrates the spreadsheet inputs and how it works using the Bet First spreadsheet.
  2. Video 2 demonstrates the Lay First spreadsheet.
    Spreadsheet inputs for this sheet are as demonstrated in video No. 1.
    For a BIGGER VIEW of these videos, click the small icon bottom right with 4 square corners.
    To move from one video to the next, click the "Next" arrow, bottom left of the YouTube screen.

 

Hedge Under 1.5 Goals with insurance.
This is a Bet First strategy in which we look to trade during the First Half of a football match.
As you know, whilst the score remains 0-0, the odds of Under 1.5 Goals drop as time passes in the game.
A bet on Under 1.5 Goals before the Kick Off can be layed to profit at anytime whilst the score remains 0-0.

After one goal is scored, either 1-0 or 0-1 in the Correct Score market (whichever is still In Play) and Under 1.5 Goals, become equivalent markets.
The odds of Under 1.5 Goals will be virtually the same as either 1-0 or 0-1 - - - whichever is still In Play.

Quite often, after one goal in the First Half, the market expects more goals, so the odds of Under 1.5 Goals can be bigger after the first goal than they were before the Kick Off.
In such a game, it may be impossible to lay Under 1.5 Goals to profit immediately after a goal has been scored without trading to a sizeable loss.
To exit to profit from such a trade usually involves sweating it out whilst we wait for time to pass in the game and the odds of Under 1.5 Goals to drop.
Whilst we are waiting, we run the risk of a second goal making our whole trade a losing bet.

This "Under 1.5 Goals with insurance" strategy gets around that problem in most games by trading the scores
of 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 and using an insurance lay, instead of simply betting and laying in the Under 1.5 Goals market.
Basic strategy.

  • Before the Kick Off, bet scores in the Correct Score market.
  • Before the Kick Off, place a lay as insurance against a 0-0 result.
  • As the game progresses with a score of 0-0, we look to exit the market by laying our bets, and betting our insurance lay for an overall profit.
    As time passes in the game, we expect this profit to increase whilst the score is 0-0.
  • If a goal is scored, Lay our one remaining In Play score (either 1-0 or 0-1) in the Correct Score market to an overall profit or an acceptable loss, to exit the whole trade.
    Note that a goal after about 30 minutes can often be very good for this strategy.

When we trade this strategy, we bet and lay the very predictable odds of 0-0, 1-0 & 0-1.
We look to exit to profit whilst the score remains 0-0.
If a goal is scored, the profit from our insurance lay will often enable us to trade to profit without having to wait for time to pass in the game before placing our lay on 1-0 or 0-1 (whichever is still In Play) to exit our trade.

An early goal can cause problems.
Also, as with any trade involving Under 1.5 Goals, 2 quick goals means end of trade, but our insurance lay means that we don't lose our whole bet stakes.
We place our insurance lay to help us to trade to profit after one goal and keep losses down to an acceptable level if the first goal is scored early in the game, or 2 quick goals are scored.

If we are able to select low scoring games with no goals or only one goal in the First Half, this strategy may produce consistent profits in the long term.
For a description of how the odds perform in the Correct Score market, follow this link. or click the "Football Odds" tab at the top of this web page.

Hedge Under 1.5 Goals With Insurance Excel spreadsheets 10.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view these spreadsheets.

These spreadsheets show the stakes required to :-

  • Dutch bet scores in the Correct Score market to balance stakes before the Kick Off.

  • Hedge the 3 individual scores 0-0, 1-0 & 0-1

  • Links to Videos describing this strategy are provided after purchase.

  • There is also a detailed write-up.

After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.

Hedge Under 1.5 Goals With Insurance spreadsheets price = 10.
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment button below

One or two losers.
1 Loser Strategy.  In a horse race, Bookies may Lay only a few runners, and have very small liabilities or no liabilities at all on the outsiders.
If an outsider wins the race, they clean up with very little payout, or no payout at all.

Another strategy is to Lay several runners but make only one targeted runner a loser.
When you use this strategy, you are not Laying the whole field, but just a few selections.

This is not the same as Laying a single selection in the hope that it loses.
Using this strategy you can Lay several scores in the Correct Score market, or several players in the First Goal Scorer market, and win on every Lay except your FIRST Lay.
If you were Laying the Correct Score Market :-

  • The only way these Lays can lose is if you happen to pick the winning score line with your FIRST Lay.

  • Lay as many score lines as you like.
    The more you Lay, the bigger your profit.

  • Additionally, as with all other Laying strategies that involve more than one Lay, every Lay you make reduces your liabilities.

  • In this case your only liability will be on your First Lay.

  • As you make more Lays, that liability is reduced, and the profit on every other Lay increases.

  • If the match ends with a score that you have not Layed, you will have no payout whatsoever.
    You clean up, winning the total of all your Lays.

  • Remember, your only losing Lay will be on the FIRST score line that you Lay.  You will win on all the others.

It is exactly the same if you Lay players in the First Goal Scorer Market :-

  • You can target any player on the list not to score first.

  • Lay that player, and Lay some others players that you think will not score first.

  • These other Lays will reduce your liabilities on your targeted player.

  • Your only losing Lay will be on the FIRST player that you Lay.  You will win on all the others.

You could also use this spreadsheet to Lay a number of horses in a horse race, golfers in a golf tournament, darts players in a darts competition etc.

Basic Strategy.  In the Correct score market, (or any other market of your choice - horses, golf, tennis tournament etc.) :-

  • Before the kick - off, decide which score line you will target to lose.
    You will be reducing your liabilities on that selection by laying other scores.

  • Lay that score line, and a few others.

Example.
There are normally 17 score lines including "Any Other Score" that we can Lay.
We could Lay 4 score lines (for example), but only one will make a loss for us.

We Lay our First score line, which could be any one of the 17.
Then we Lay a 2nd score line, a 3rd, and a 4th.
We could carry on laying more score lines if we wish.
These 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Lays reduce our liabilities on our First Lay, just as any normal series of Lays would do, but if we stake correctly :-

  • If the winner does NOT come from the 4 scores that we have layed, we have 4 successful lays, and we clean up, with no payout.

  • If the winner comes from score lines 2, 3, or 4, we make a profit.

  • If our First score line wins, we make a loss, but our liabilities have been reduced by the successful lays on score lines 2, 3 and 4.

2 Losers Strategy.
This strategy can be used to lay 2 (or more) score lines to lose (or First Goal Scorers, horses etc.)
Once again, we do not Lay the whole field, but a few score lines..
The procedure is exactly the same, but this time, 2 score lines are targeted to lose.

Liabilities on score lines 1 and 2 will be reduced by the additional Lays on score lines 3 upwards.
This strategy of targeting 2 score lines, has 2 advantages, but one obvious drawback :-

  • A large slice of liability is reduced on score line 1 by the stake on score line 2.

  • A large slice of liability is reduced on score line 2 by the stake on score line 1.
    This strategy is particularly effective if score lines 1 and 2 are at short odds.

  • The downside is that we have 2 score lines running against us instead of 1.

1 or 2 Losers Excel spreadsheets 10.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view these spreadsheets.

These 1 or 2 Losers spreadsheets calculate instantly the Lay stakes required to Lay up to 20 selections to reduce the liability on either 1 or 2 target selections.
You could of course use this spreadsheet for any event other than a football match.
This Excel file contains 2 separate spreadsheets for your tenner. 

1 loser spreadsheet
Only the first
selection will have a negative liability.
Once you lay more than 2
selections, a profit will be made on selections 2 to 20.

2 losers spreadsheet
Only the first 2
selections will have negative liabilities.
Once you lay more than 3
selections, a profit will be made on selections 3 to 20.

If none of the Layed selections win, you clean up with the total of all the Lay amounts staked - you have a "Skinner".
The more
selections you Lay :-

  • The less your liabilities become on your target selections

  • The more profit you show on other Layed selections

  • The bigger the payout on a "Skinner" - a selection you haven't Layed.

After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.

1 or 2 Losers spreadsheets price = 10
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment button below

 

Correct Score market

Hedge 1-1.
This Hedging strategy relies on a decrease in the odds of the 1-1 score line in the Correct Score market, after a goal is scored or two goals are scored to get the score to 1-1.
Whether you are a seasoned trader or a beginner, this strategy offers quite a safe way of trading.
Providing you stake correctly, you could make good percentage profits on your initial stake if you are able to Hedge using this strategy.
An advantage of this strategy is that it is a Bet First Hedge, rather than a Lay First Hedge.
Whenever you use a Lay First hedge (odds increasing), your profit will always be less than your original Lay stake, but with a Bet First hedge, (odds decreasing), your profit can be bigger than your original Bet stake.

If events go against you, a Dutching strategy is suggested to enable you to continue trading in the match.
Basic Strategy.

  • Before the kick-off, place a 1-1 Bet in the Correct Score market.

  • Place an Insurance Bet.

  • Whilst there are no goals, do nothing - you will break even.

  • After a goal is scored, Lay your original 1-1 Bet score line to profit if the Lay odds are lower than your original Bet odds.

Examples of risks.

  • A goal may be scored but the 1-1 odds may not shorten sufficiently to enable a successful Hedge.
    For example, the first goal may be scored very early in the game, or if the game is looking very one-sided, the market may judge that the losing side will not equalize to get the score to 1-1.

  • 2 quick goals scored by the same side can take the score to 2-0 or 0-2 before we have had time to place our 1-1 Lay or exit strategy bets whilst the score is 1-0 or 0-1.
    This type of problem of course applies to other strategies.
    If you were trading the Draw in the Match Odds market, a quick goal by both sides taking the score to 1-1, would cause trading problems.

Hedge 1-1 Correct Score Excel spreadsheets 10.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view these spreadsheets.

This spreadsheet can be used to show the stakes required to :-

  • Hedge a 1-1 score line with an insurance bet.

  • Dutch the markets if the odds do not shorten sufficiently for a successful Hedge in the Correct score market.

  • Note that this spreadsheet is also suitable for other Correct Score trades.

After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.

Hedge 1-1 Correct Score spreadsheets price = 10.
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment button below

Lay the Wiining Team.
This strategy involves both Dutching and Hedging.
Insurance against a draw result or a win by the "Losing Team", is provided by a Lay of the Winning Team.
Theory.
The aim of this strategy, is to have a winning bet on the final score in the Correct Score market.
To do that at any time in the game, we could Bet the current score, plus other scores as goals are scored.
If we continually Bet the current winning score as goals were scored, we would of course soon Bet an over-round book and quite often make a loss on our trades.
We can cut down on the number of Bets required, if we only have to Bet on one team.
To keep the number of bets on different scores to a minimum, we can wait until late in the game before entering the market.
To insure against a Draw result or the Losing Team scoring goals and going on to win the game, all we need is a very small insurance Lay on the winning team
.

Insurance Lay.
If we Lay the Winning Team, that Lay would be successful if the result was a Draw or a win for the team that was Losing when we placed our Lay.
By laying the winning team at very short odds, we can avoid having to Bet draw score lines such as 1-1, 2-2, and all possible scores for the team that was losing when we placed our Lay.
The cost of that Lay can be very small.
For example a Lay of 20 at odds of 1.04, carries a liability of only minus 0.80.

If we enter the market at a score of 1-0, and Lay the winning Team, we would have a successful Lay if the Losing Team equalized or won the game.
To hit the winning score for the Winning Team, we only need to Bet the current score of 1-0, plus 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, and Any Unquoted, but to Bet all those possible scores probably wouldn't be profitable.

So, the idea is, to enter the market late in the game, especially at a 2 goal difference in the score, such as 2-0 or 0-2, and Bet the current score and other scores as goals are scored, to make sure we Bet the winning score result.
If the match ends in a draw or a win for the "Losing Team", we have a successful Lay on the "Winning Team".

Strategy.

  • Late in the game, in the Match Odds market, Lay the Winning Team.

  • In the Correct Score market, Bet the current score line, plus the next 2 possible scores..

  • As the game progresses, Bet further score lines as necessary in the Correct Score market..

  • Make sure you Bet the final score result.

Example.  Russia - Sweden.  Euro 2008.  June 17th 2008.  Russia won the game 2-0.
Russia were leading 2-0 at 50 minutes.
Lay odds at 60 minutes for Russia were 1.09 in the Match Odds market.
Lay Russia 30 at 1.09 for a liability of -2.70.
In the Correct Score market, Bet the current score, 2-0, plus the next 2 possible scores 3-0 and 2-1, for a win or lose profit of 7.71.

Lay Odds Lay Stake   Winning Team Win Lose    
1.09 30.00   Russia -2.70 30.00    
             
             
Stake To Return   32.70     Overall
Betfair   BET Correct Scores Win Lose
Scores ODDS Adjust Stakes Win Lose    
1-0              
2-0 3.50   9.34 10.41 -22.29 7.71 7.71
3-0 5.00   6.54 10.41 -22.29 7.71 7.71
             
2-1 5.10   6.41 10.41 -22.29 7.71 7.71
3-1              
             
3-2              
Any Unqoted              
             
Total stakes     22.29        
             

Above is a snapshot of the "Trade Winning Team" spreadsheet.
Enter the Lay Odds of the Winning Team, plus the Lay stake.
Enter the odds of the current score and the next 2 possible scores for the Winning Team from the Correct Score market.
In this case, with the score of 2-0, the current score is 2-0, and the next 2 possible scores for the winning team are 3-0 and 2-1.

Enter the odds, and the spreadsheet shows the stakes required in the Correct Score market, for the current score and the next 2 possible scores.
The potential Overall Win / Lose Gross profit is shown for the whole trade across both Match Odds and Correct Score markets, in this case 7.71.

Timing of your entry into the market is important.
If you enter the market late in the game, there is less time for goals to be scored, but be aware that the odds of the current score and possibly the next score up for the winning team will probably be shortening in the Correct Score market.

A problem with this strategy is that if you wait too long before entering the Match Odds and Correct Score markets after a goal is scored, for example at a score of 2-0 or 0-2, the Match odds may stabilise, whilst the Correct Score odds continue to shorten.
The effect of that is your potential profit may be reduced, especially if more goals are scored.
So, ...... before entering the market, use the spreadsheet to check for the potential profit.

An advantage of this strategy.

  • If you have Layed the winning team and a goal is scored by the Losing Team before you have placed Bets in the Correct Score market, the odds of the Winning Team should lengthen to some degree.
    This offers an excellent opportunity to Hedge out of the Match Odds market with a Bet on the Winning Team at Higher odds than your Lay.
    A Hedge spreadsheet is provided to show the stakes required for a successful Hedge in this situation.

Trade the Winning Team Excel spreadsheet 5.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view these spreadsheets.

Lay the Winning Team in the Match Odds market, then enter the odds of the next winning score lines for the Winning Team from the Correct Score market into the spreadsheet.
This spreadsheet shows the stakes required to :-

  • Bet the Current Score to an equal Win / Lose profit or liability at the odds you input.

  • Bet further scores to equalize your trade.

  • An Adjust facility allows you to favour a win or lose result.

  • Hedge spreadsheets are also included in this package.
    These can be used to exit the market at any time, or can be used to trade the odds in any
    market  ..... Football, Horses, Cricket, Tennis, Snooker  ..... anything.
    Bet First or Lay First, makes no difference.
    These spreadsheets show the stakes required to equalize your trade.

Feedback 20th Sept 2008
I just had to let you know how this one is going...........
I decided to give this a try today, instead of my usual laying of the draw.
I have just finished my fourth bet this morning using this and have varied in overall profit between $8 and $65.
My only "error" :- The first match I bet on, which is where the $8 profit came from, I didn't put enough on the Lay side of the winning team.
All I can say is "wow"; this is as close to shooting fish in a barrel as it gets!
I think Laying The Winning Team just became my "backbone" strategy for football
trading.
Alan, Vancouver, Canada.

Feedback 24th March 2009.  Now a seasoned "Winning Team" trader :-
I am really having a lot of success with the "Trade Winning team" spreadsheet.
I am usually able to get anywhere from $10 - $35 profit (based on doing a $100 lay) most of the time.

The strategy I have found effective is to back my correct scores at about 50 minutes, when the leading team's price is usually 1.25 or so.
Unless they have a *huge* lead, I am usually able to cover all the winning team's most likely correct scores (4-5 results) due to the better prices.
Then I usually wait a bit for the winning team's price to come down below 1.10 before placing my lay on the Winning Team.

I find this increases the profit by a bit, since the initial back bets on the correct scores are based on the higher price of the Winning Team (say 1.25), but if I can lay off at 1.05 instead, it's a bit of a bonus.
It carries an element of risk, particularly if the winning team only has a margin of one goal, but if I feel the trailing team might score, I will usually include the potential draw score amongst my "correct score" back bets.

For example, if the score is 2-1, I will cover the 2-2 score as well, as insurance while I am waiting to place the Lay on the Wining Team.
I have just simply found that by the time the leading team's price is down around 1.10 and lower, the price on the current score is so low that it kills a lot of the profit one could otherwise potentially make.
I
figure the leading team will go on to win I would guess, at least 9 times out of 10.

Of course, by waiting you run the risk of the lay price going up should the other team equalize/go ahead.
Alan, Vancouver, Canada.

This is Alan's strategy for bigger profits but with slightly more risk :-

  • Late in the game, with one team wining, Bet the current score, plus potential winning scores of the winning team.
  • Wait for time to pass in the game, and the Lay odds of the winning team should shorten.
  • Lay the winning team at shorter odds than earlier in the game (when you Bet the Winning Team score lines).
  • If the winning team wins, you have a winning bet.
    If the losing team wins or the game is drawn, you have a successful Lay on what was "The winning team" when you placed your bets and lays..

After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.

Trade the Winning Team Excel spreadsheet price = 5.
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment button below

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