Horse racing strategiesExcel Trading Spreadsheets

Free On-line Calculators.

These on-line calculators were originally put together for my own use whilst betting and laying horse and football markets.
Some of them convert odds or other information into something a little more useful, whilst others were designed for a specific strategy.

I hope you find these free calculators interesting, and hopefully, a refreshing change from the usual free on-line calculators that show the staking for trading bookies free bets, or the returns from winning bets on multiples.

Calculators are positioned to the left of your screen so that you can minimise your screen and place them alongside your Betfair market.

Please bear in mind that all betting and laying just within an exchange carries risk.
The only way to trade risk free is to use a bookie for the bet end of a trade.
I expect that you will probably be well aware of that by now.
In the write-up for each calculator, I try to highlight in red the risks / problems that I have had when using that particular calculator.
You may of course have other unforeseen problems.

Warning :-
The owner of this web site cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred whilst using any calculator or spreadsheet associated with this web site.

Calculators

New   
Football Exact Goals odds

Combined or Coupled odds

ELS
Expected Losing Sequence

Bet exchange accumulator

Betfair Queue & odds movements

Insurance bet or lay

Lay The Draw exit strategy L.T.D

Graphs showing Ticks

Exact Goals odds . . . . . A guide to . . . . . How many goals do the markets expect will be scored ?
We all look at Match Odds to see which team is most likely to win, but where do we go from there ?
If there was one, I have no doubt at all that an Exact Goals market in Betfair would be the 2nd thing to look at, but there is no such market.
The best we can do at present is look at Under / Over Goals, Correct Score, BTTS, etc..
To help us to trade a game, Betfair put several markets on the same screen,  but how do you weigh things up across those markets ?.

Betfair doesn't have a market for the Exact Number of goals to be scored.
We can use Correct Score to work out Exact Goal odds, but the normal Correct Score market bunches odds together for scores with 4 goals or more, with scores shown for such as 4-0, 0-4, 5-0, 0-5, 1-4, 4-1, 2-3, 3-2, etc. in 2 separate Correct Score markets, one for Home scores and another for Away scores.

The result of that is that we can work out accurate Exact Goals odds for 0, 1, 2, or 3 goals if we use only the normal Correct Score market, but for bigger scores, things get more complicated.
To look at Exact Goal odds for 4, 5, 6, or more goals we would need to look at 2 more Correct Score markets as well.
Also, in games with poor liquidity, there can be big gaps between bet and lay odds in Correct Score markets, or even no odds at all.

To get around those problems, we can use the Under / Over goals markets which usually have smaller gaps between bet and lay odds.
For example :-
If you bet Under 1.5 goals and bet Over 2.5 goals, and you have bet everything except 2 goals.
Using those 2 bits of information, we can work out the odds for 2 goals.
We can of course do the same for other exact numbers of goals.

In the calculator below, input bet or lay odds to see both bet and lay odds for Exact Goals.
The column on the right shows the odds used to work out the Exact Number of Goals odds, but to understand how the odds have been worked out, a bit of reverse logic is required.
For example :- If we BET EVERYTHING EXCEPT the scores containing ONE goal, that is the same as LAYING one goal.
                             LAY EVERYTHING EXCEPT the scores containing ONE goal, and that is the same as BETTING one goal.

To see only Bet odds, input only the LAY odds from your Under / Over Goals markets, + both bet and lay odds for 0-0.
To see only Lay odds, input only the BET odds from your Under / Over Goals markets, + both bet and lay odds for 0-0.

Note that we do not need Over 0.5 odds.  Also, we don't need Under 8.5 odds (for odds for 9 goals).
 0-0 odds from Correct Score can be used instead of Under 0.5 Goals odds.

A quick way to see what score will have the Favourite odds is to look in Betfair and compare the Over goal odds of one market with the Under goal odds of the market above.
For example compare Over 1.5 with Under 2.5.
If the odds of both are less than 2.0, the goals in between will be the favourite in your Exact Goals market.
In that example, if Over 1.5 and Under 2.5.odds were both less than 2.0, then 2 goals would be the favourite odds. . . . in red in the calculator.
If it is odds-on that there will be more than 1.5 goals and odds-on that there will be less than 2.5 goals, the indications are that there will be 2 goals.

You do not need inputs in all the cells, . . . . . . just enough for you to see the shape of your market.
The
favourite odds will be in red.
Compare the 2nd and 3rd fav odds.
2nd fav odds smaller than 3rd fav odds may indicate that the markets expect "Favourite or less" goals in your game.
3rd fav odds smaller than 2nd fav odds may indicate that the markets expect "Favourite or more" goals, a higher scoring game.

Note that to bet or lay Exact Goals using the Under / Over Goals markets will be costly in commission as your 2 stakes will be split across 2 separate markets.
To bet or lay Exact Goals, it costs less in commission to Dutch the scores that add up to your number of goals in the normal Correct Score market .. . .
BUT the normal Correct Score market only covers up to 3 goals of course . . . . with 4, 5, 6, etc. goals being split across 3 Correct Score markets.
The Exact Goals odds produced by this calculator are only approximate odds, based on a 100% book percentage.

 

The Exact Goals video below demonstrates the calculator.
The result of the game in the video was Bristol City 4 - 1 Crystal Palace,  . . . 5 goals.
For a bigger view, click on the small 4 cornered icon, bottom right of the YouTube screen.

 

Combined or "Coupled" odds.
Use this calculator to show the Combined Odds of up to 10 runners.
You may be using a staking plan spreadsheet, betting or laying one runner at a time, but decide you need to bet or lay more than one runner in your race or game.
Dutch your bets or lays and you can use the Combined Odds of your runners for just one row of input in your spreadsheet for all your runners.
Any kind of Dutching - - - - Dutching with a set stakes limit, Dutching to a profit target, etc., will work ok with Combined Odds.
Input the odds of your Dutched runners into this calculator and then use the Combined Odds for a single odds entry in your staking plan.
Follow this link for a selection of Dutching spreadsheets

The balanced staking of Dutching returns the same profit or loss if you hit a winner or a loser.
If you are not Dutching your stakes, Combined Odds isn't going to work for you, as your profit or loss for each runner will not be equal.

Name your runners and input up to 12 odds.
Combined or Coupled odds are highlighted in yellow.
The total book percentage of your runners is in orange.
Follow this link for a video description of Dutching and using Combined / Coupled odds.

 

Expected Losing Sequence . . . . E.L.S.
Use this calculator to work out (estimate) how many consecutive losers you can expect to hit in your trades.
From your records of past results, or your estimate of the number of winners you expect to hit, input your number of bets and winners.
The calculator shows the E.L.S. based on the those figures.
Note that for the same strike rate, a big sample will show a bigger E.L.S. than a small sample.

I came across the calculation for "Expected losing sequence" whilst browsing the Internet quite some time ago, so put a small spreadsheet together.
I added a Profit & Loss calculation so that potential P & L can be worked out for bets at different odds.
Input your commission rate and Average Odds for your bets.
The P & L part of the calculator has zero influence on the E.L.S. part, so if you change your odds, the E.L.S will be unaffected..

To arrive at the net profit on the right in the green highlighted cell, each bet has been treated as an individual bet.
Commission has been taken off everything in the "Win" cell, and then the losses deducted from those winnings.
For example, if we were to place one bet per day for 100 days, 100 bets, and hit 60 individual winners and 40 losers :-
We would pay commission on each of those 60 bets, and then deduct the 40 losing stakes.
That is how the P & L has been worked out.

Bet an exchange accumulator.
Use this calculator to bet an accumulator at Exchange Odds.
To use this calculator, you will need time between each of your races or games so that you know the result of one before you bet the next.
Input odds and a starting stake.
After each event finishes, input the result as a One for hitting a winner, or Zero, or leave it blank for hitting a loser, and the calculator shows the next stake.
To see the potential total payout if you were to hit all winners, enter all odds and with all results as winners.
Commission is built into this calculator.
To see what bookie odds pay, enter your bookie odds and set commission to zero.

Need to bet more than one runner in your race ?
Put any old odds into the calculator for your race to show the Next Stake for your next runner.
Dutch your runners to a Set Stakes Limit of that amount and then overtype in the calculator with Combined Odds for a single line of input in this calculator.


 

Betfair Queue . . . .  plus, "Where is the money going ?"
Use this calculator to see what is, or is not being bet, and what is or is not being layed, . . . . . before or after you place a bet or lay.
Use this calculator to see where you are in the Betfair queue. . . . . How close you are to getting your stakes matched.

The graph that Betfair provide for each runner shows where the odds have already been. . . . That's history.
This calculator was designed as an indicator for where the odds could be most likely to go next using the same information, but presented in a different way.

Betfair queue position :-
Name your team, horse etc..
From the Betfair graph, input the amount waiting, the "To Bet", or "To Lay" into the calculator from the blue or pink columns in the Betfair's graph info.
Also input the "Traded" amount. . . Enter that number in the "Original Traded" cell in the calculator.
Then, refresh the Betfair graph by clicking on another runner and then clicking your runner again.
Input the "Traded" amount but this time in the "Current Traded" cell in the calculator.
Keep refreshing your runner and updating the
"Current Traded" cell in the calculator.

The calculator will show how much is still left to match, and how much has been matched since you started updating the calculator.
I am unable to show negative numbers in red text, so if the word "Negative" pops up, your Current Traded amount has exceeded the "Target Traded" amount.
When you see a negative in the "Still left to match" column, your bet or lay should be matched, or a bit earlier if other traders have cancelled their trade.

Where might the odds go next ?
Set your own percentage limit and this calculator indicates whether the odds may be about to move up or down based on your inputs.
Update the "Traded" amount in the Current Traded grey cells as described above.

If the % Ratio column hits your Trigger %, an indication will appear with a suggestion as to which way the odds may be about to move.
That is only an indication that one side has been traded more than the other and has hit your % Trigger.
No-one can predict the future - - - - - what the odds will do next.
If the odds change whilst you are doing that, you need to overtype your new odds, plus the Original Waiting & Original Traded amounts in the calculator..
Then carry on updating the "Traded" amount in the Current Traded grey cells as before.

To cut down on typing by 50% or so, input your odds and only the Originally Traded amount. . . . . and ignore the Original To Bet, To Lay amounts.
Leave those blank..
Then just update the "Current Traded" amount in the grey cell.
You will get less information, but speed things up with less effort.

Horses.
Look for a race with 3 horses with odds in single figures, and all the others at big odds.  - - The betting suggests that it is a 3 horse race.
If one or more of the first 3 in the betting shorten, the odds of the other one or 2 must lengthen to maintain Betfair's near 100% book percentage.
If one or more of those 3 odds get bigger, the other one or 2 must get shorter.
The only thing that will prevent that is the odds of the outsiders moving instead of the 3 shorter priced runners.

Football Match Odds.
Use this calculator with a Match Odds football market to monitor all 3 outcomes. 

To keep pace with a market, it may be best to use this calculator well before Race Time, or Kick-Off, when the odds are not moving quickly.
I have had problems in very big markets . . . . One selection that may appear to be very quiet, can suddenly make a move, having been hit by a very big bet or lay.
I found that smaller markets that I expected might be more volatile, proved a little more reliable.
Use this method as an odds movement indicator, and you will still have your ups and downs.  . . . . . Does anyone really know where the odds will move next ?

 

The video below describes a spreadsheet version of this calculator.
How to use it as an indicator of potential odds movements is described in the 2nd half of the video, and especially towards the end
.
For a bigger view, click on the small 4 cornered icon, bottom right of the YouTube screen.

 

Insurance Bet or Lay stake to include commission.
If you need to place an insurance bet in a separate market from your main trade, there will be commission to pay if you hit a winner with your Insurance Bet or Lay.
If you are insuring for a large amount, you could lose quite a bit due to commission deductions in that separate market.
The calculator below shows the stake required to win your chosen amount, including commission deductions.

Input bet or lay odds and the Target amount you need to win with a winning bet or a successful lay.

Dutch 3 Lays and L.T.D. (Lay The Draw) Exit strategy.
Place one or more Lays in a Match Odds football market and use this calculator to show the Lay stakes required to equalize the whole trade for an equal profit or loss whatever the result.
This is the equivalent of a "Green Up" button that you may have seen in trading software, but this is a Dutching method, not a bet and lay Hedge green-up.

You may find other uses for this Dutching calculator.
Below, (later this week) will be a Lay The Draw exit strategy which can be used if the odds of the Draw don't lengthen after the first goal.
Note that this strategy is aimed at damage limitation rather than an exit to profit, and it is also high risk, if the score gets to 1 - 1 at the "Wrong" time.
Instructions.
The calculator has 3 sections at the bottom, one for each of the 2 teams and the Draw.
Name your teams and draw half way down the calculator.
Input odds and stakes of your lays in the 3 bottom sections.
The current position of your trade for each of the 3 outcomes is shown at the top in the middle.

To see the Dutching stakes required to equalize your trade, enter the current odds in the yellow cells.
A range of odds and stakes are shown.
Top left in yellow shows the the profit or loss if you place the stakes shown on the yellow row next to your odds inputs.
The "If Layed" columns in the middle part of the calculator show profit or loss if you lay amounts shown at those odds.
Lay the odds and stakes shown on the yellow row, and your profit or loss should be that shown top left of the calculator.
Lay the odds and stakes in the pink cells, and P & L will be slightly different from the top left yellow cells.

Insurance Bet.
The Insurance Bet odds & stake facility is provided for use with Lay The Draw trades if you place an insurance bet on 0-0, or something else.
Input odds and stake, and bet profit will be added to the P & L of the left - most section of the calculator, but taken off P & L for the middle & right sections.
That allows the calculator to show 0 - 0 bet profit in Correct Score combined with lay liabilities in Match Odds.
If a goal goes in and your 0 - 0 insurance bet becomes a loser, delete only the bet odds and the calculator will then see the 0 - 0 bet stake as a losing bet stake.
The bet stake will now be deducted from all 3 sections of the calculator, not just middle & right hand sections.
If you are not using an insurance bet, or not even doing an L.T.D. trade, leave the bet odds & stake blank.

L.T.D Exit strategies.
This is nothing new.  I read about this method years ago in a forum somewhere and put a spreadsheet together for my own use to show the staking.
We have layed the Draw and the outsider of the 2 teams scores the first goal.
The odds of the Draw go down instead of up, so we cannot bet the Draw to exit to profit.
We have several options, . . . do nothing and hope for more goals, bet to exit our trade and take the hit of a losing trade, or start to Dutch the 2 teams in Match Odds, hoping for an early equalizing goal that gets the score to 1-1 so that we can make a clean exit with little or no financial damage.
1.  Dutch Match Odds exit strategy if we are expecting
an equalizing goal from the favourite team :-

  • With the score at 1-0 or 0-1, Lay the winning team for a chunk of what would be an equalizing lay at the current odds.
    Look for to break even if that team wins, or perhaps an acceptable loss.

  • At a score of 1-1, lay both teams at the current odds to Dutch all 3 outcomes to equalize the whole trade.

Problems can occur if we have layed the winning team, but the score remains 1-0 or 0-1 well into the 2nd half of the game.
After about 65 minutes or so, if a goal goes in to get the score to 1-1, the odds of the 2 teams may not be small enough for a good exit without too much damage.
Also, a goal very late in the game that gets the score to 1-1 may not leave enough time for the Match Odds market to reform before the final whistle.
If that happens, there will not be time to trade out.
Perhaps a speculative lay of the current score, 1-0 or 0-1 at very short odds may help as that could be done very cheaply at very short odds.
A very late goal would see profit from that lay, but if no later goal is scored, the payout on 1-0 or 0-1 can be quite small.

2.  Try this - - - Dutch Match Odds exit strategy with insurance :-
If we lay a little less on the Winning team, we can place a lay towards the end of the game when the lay odds are very small.
That will cover a very late goal from the Favourite Team :-

 If we anticipate that there may NOT be an equalizing goal from the Favourite Team (Liverpool in the 2nd video below) :-

  • With the score at 1-0 or 0-1, Lay the winning team for slightly less than an equalizing amount at the current odds.
    In video 2 below, lay Watford for 10 instead of 11.63.

  • If the score remains 1-0, we could lay Watford again very late in the game at odds of 1.05 for 60 at odds of 1.05 for zero loss against the Draw, and a loss of only  -0.20 against a win for Watford.

  • If we lay very late in the game, there would be no need to lay Liverpool at all as there would be a very big profit from our successful lays of the Draw and Watford against a very late Liverpool win.

  • In the video, Liverpool scored an equalizer soon after the first Watford goal to get the score to 1-1.

  • At that point, with the score at 1-1 & after laying Watford for 10 instead of 11.63, lay the 2 teams at the odds shown in the video.
    Lay Watford 8.49 at odds of 7.40 & Liverpool 51.14 at odds 1.76 - - - - for a loss against all 3 outcomes of close to
    -0.38.whatever the result.

 

Video 1.  This old video describes a spreadsheet version of this Dutch 3 Lays calculator.
Apologies for the poor sound quality.
Please turn up your volume.
Video 2 describes an L.T.D Dutching exit strategy that can be used with this calculator.
To demonstrate the exit strategy, odds are used from a game that was already in progress, so no lays were actually placed.
Odds in the video are :- The Draw pre kick-off Lay 4.5.  After one goal, Watford Lay 2.72, Liverpool Lay 3.05, and at a score of 1-1, Watford Lay 7.4, Liverpool Lay 1.76.
For a bigger view, click on the small 4 cornered icon, bottom right of the YouTube screen.

 

A graph showing the number of Ticks moved.
I put this together in an attempt to see more clearly how odds interact.
Follow this link - - Opens in another window.
If something goes up, something else must come down to maintain the near 100% book percentage of Betfair markets.
This method of displaying Tick movements makes it easier to see how one set of odds are moving in relation to others.

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