TIcks displayed in a graph

I put this together in an attempt to see more clearly how odds interact.
If something goes up, something else must come down to maintain the near 100% book percentage of Betfair markets.

This method of displaying Tick movements makes it easier to see how one set of odds are moving in relation to others.
A display of Tick movements has the advantage that lines on the graph all start from the same base line of zero.
That is, the coloured line representing each of the runners in the left hand Line Graph below, all set off from the same point, . . . . . . zero on the left hand side of the graph.
Note that the first bits of each line don't show up until there have been 3 or 4 inputs, but they do all start from the same point.
The BIG advantage of a Ticks graph is that all lines use the same scale up the left hand side.
Everything in the graph starting from the same point, and using the same scale, makes it easy to see how the odds have been performing in relation to each other.

Compare a Ticks line graph with an Odds line graph below, for the same 3 runners :-
The graph on the left counts the number of ticks from the starting odds. . . . . Zero Ticks on the middle horizontal line.
The graph on the right displays the odds.

These are the start and finish odds and ticks for the 3 runners displayed below :-
Horse 1.  Binge Drinker - - - - - The blue line odds - - -  2.46 to 2.52,  a total of 3 ticks.
Horse 2.  Buckhorn - - - - - - - - The red line odds - - - - 3.65 to 2.80,  a total of 23 ticks.
Horse 3.  Royale Django - - - - -The green line odds - - 5.10 to 6.80,  a total of 13 ticks.

This is a dramatic example, using genuine odds from a horse race.
The Ticks graph on the left shows quite clearly that the general trend of the red odds was down, whilst blue and green were definitely up.
Although you cannot see it in the Ticks graph, all 3 lines start at Zero, but show only after the first 3 or 4 inputs.
Odds on the right appear flatter for Red and Blue.

Ticks Graph on-line calculator / spreadsheet below :-
Inputs. . . . Bet odds
are recommended rather than lay odds.
Name your runners in the dark cells at the top of the coloured columns to the left of the graphs.
A long name will compress the graph, so keep names as brief as possible.

Below the names, there are 50 rows for input for odds.
Type in the odds of your runners with short time intervals between inputs.
The Line graph.
As you input the odds of your 3 runners, the lower graph shows the number of ticks that the odds have moved up or down from your first input.
Lines will progress showing the number of tick changes in the blue column = the blue line in the lower graph, pink = red, and green = the green line.
Note that nothing will show in the lower  graph until you have input 3 or 4 sets of odds.

When you have a decent display, place your curser over the graph to see the number of ticks at that point that your odds have moved since your first odds input.
Place your curser over the name of a runner to the right of the graph and the line graph for that runner will stand out whilst the others fade.

The Bar graph.
Percentage figures used in the smaller Bar graph at the top are based on the odds that you input.
We know that Betfair markets are mostly close to a 100% book, so if we add the % of your 3 odds together and take that from 100, we have roughly the % of all other runners.
If the combined odds of your 3 runners go down, the % of the rest of the runners will go up as their combined odds drift . . . . . to maintain the 100% book percentage.
If the combined odds of your 3 runners drift, the odds of the rest will come down to maintain Betfair's 100% book.
That is the theory for the bar graph. . . . . . . . You may find that bit of extra information a helpful indicator at some point.

If you are tracking the first 3 in the betting, the Bar graph will show if there has been a significant move in the combined odds of your 3 runners.
An upward trend in the Bar graph indicates that the combined odds of the rest of the runners should be taking a bigger % of the betting market as one or more of your 3 runners drifts.

An upward Bar graph trend indicates a bigger % for the outsiders, so the combined outsider odds should be getting smaller.
A downward Bar graph trend indicates a smaller %, so the combined outsider odds should be getting bigger.
Don't worry, I have to rack my brains as well every time I think about what that bar graph is telling me.

Interpreting the graphs.
When using these graphs, I like to choose horse races with 3 short priced runners and most or all other odds in double figures
In those races, the betting market indicates a 3 horse race rather than a spread of odds across all runners.
Odds movements should in theory be concentrated between the 3 major players, and then the outsiders combined.
You can of course use this method in any market, not jut horses.
Not all races show significant trends.
A good pattern is 2 lines heading down and one going up, or 2 going up and one down.
Problems.
Please remember that we are looking at history here,  . . . . . no-one can foretell the future, so no-one knows what will happen next.
I hope this is an improvement on the usual graphical information that is available elsewhere.

Note that in the line graph below, the right hand end of your lines will drop down to zero, so your lines will all dip at the end after your latest odds input..
I cannot get around that in this on-line calculator / spreadsheet at present.
Follow this link for bet and lay Hedge spreadsheets.
Need to do another graph without losing this one ?
Click on this link to open this web page again, but in another window.


 

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