TIcks displayed in a graph
I put this together in an attempt to see
more clearly how odds interact.
If something goes up, something else must come down to maintain the near
100% book percentage of Betfair markets.
This method of displaying Tick movements makes it easier to see how one set of odds
are moving in relation to others.
A display of Tick movements has the advantage that
lines on the graph all start from the same base line of zero.
That is, the coloured line representing each of the runners in the left
hand Line
Graph below, all set off
from the same point, . . . . . . zero on the left hand side of the
graph.
Note that the first bits of each line don't show up until there have
been 3 or 4 inputs, but they do all start from the same point.
The BIG advantage of a Ticks graph is that all lines use the same scale
up the left hand side.
Everything in the graph starting from the same point, and using the same
scale, makes it easy to see how the odds have been performing in
relation to each other.
Compare a Ticks
line graph with an Odds line graph below, for the same 3 runners :
The graph on the left counts the number of ticks from the starting odds.
. . . . Zero Ticks on the middle horizontal line.
The graph on the right displays the odds.
These are the start and finish odds and ticks for the 3 runners
displayed below :
Horse 1. Binge Drinker      The blue line odds   
2.46 to 2.52, a total of 3 ticks.
Horse 2. Buckhorn         The red line odds     3.65
to 2.80, a total of 23 ticks.
Horse 3. Royale Django     The green line odds   5.10 to
6.80, a total of 13 ticks.
This is a dramatic example, using genuine
odds from a horse race.
The Ticks graph on the left shows quite clearly that the general trend
of the red odds was down, whilst blue and green were definitely up.
Although you cannot see it in the Ticks graph, all 3 lines start at
Zero, but show only after the first 3 or 4 inputs.
Odds on the right appear flatter for Red and Blue.
Ticks Graph
online calculator / spreadsheet below :
Inputs. . . . Bet odds are
recommended rather than lay odds.
Name your runners in the dark cells at the top of the coloured columns
to the left of the graphs.
A long name will compress the graph, so keep names as brief as
possible.
Below the names, there are 50 rows for input for odds.
Type in the odds of your runners with short time intervals between inputs.
The Line graph.
As you input the odds of your 3 runners, the lower graph shows the number of ticks that the odds have moved up or
down from your first input.
Lines will progress showing the number of tick changes in the blue column = the blue line in the lower
graph, pink = red, and green = the green line.
Note that nothing will show in the lower graph until you
have input 3 or 4 sets of odds.
When you have a decent display, place your curser over the graph to see
the number of ticks at that point that your odds have moved since your first odds
input.
Place your curser over the name of a runner to the right of the graph and the line
graph for that runner will stand out whilst the others fade.
The Bar graph.
Percentage figures used in the smaller
Bar graph at the top are based on the odds that you input.
We know that Betfair markets are mostly close to a 100% book, so if we
add the % of your 3 odds together and take that from 100, we have
roughly the % of all other runners.
If the combined odds of your 3 runners go down, the % of the rest of the
runners will go up as their combined odds drift . . . . . to maintain
the 100% book percentage.
If the combined odds of your 3 runners drift, the odds of the rest will come down to maintain Betfair's 100% book.
That is the theory for the bar graph. . . . . . . . You may find that bit of
extra information a helpful indicator at some point.
If you are tracking the first 3 in the
betting, the Bar graph will show if there has been a significant move in
the combined odds of your 3 runners.
An upward trend in the Bar graph indicates that the combined odds of the
rest of the runners should be taking a bigger % of the betting market as
one or more of your 3 runners drifts.
An upward Bar graph trend indicates a
bigger % for the outsiders, so the combined outsider odds should be getting smaller.
A downward Bar graph trend indicates a smaller %, so the combined outsider odds
should be getting bigger.
Don't worry, I have to rack my brains as well every time I think about
what that bar graph is telling me.
Interpreting the graphs.
When using these graphs,
I like to choose horse races with 3 short priced runners and most or all other
odds in double figures
In those races, the betting market indicates a 3 horse race rather than
a spread of odds across all runners.
Odds movements should in theory be concentrated between the 3 major
players, and then the outsiders combined.
You can of course use this method in any market, not jut horses.
Not all races show significant trends.
A good pattern is 2 lines heading down and one going up, or 2 going up
and one down.
Problems.
Please remember that we are looking at history
here, . . . . . noone can foretell the future, so noone knows what will happen next.
I hope this is an improvement on the usual graphical information that is
available elsewhere.
Note that in the line graph below, the
right hand end of your lines will drop down to zero, so your lines will
all dip at the end after your latest odds input..
I cannot get around that in this online calculator / spreadsheet at
present.
Follow
this link for bet and lay Hedge spreadsheets.
Need to do another graph without losing this one ?
Click on this link to open this web page again, but in another window.
