Trade 2 or more related horse racing
markets.
A bit of imaginative staking for horse racing markets.
I would expect that most of us have
placed bets and lays in more than one market when trading a football match.
Horse racing also has several markets to choose from, but my guess is that most
Betfair traders won't have combined more than one horse racing market in the
same trade.
The Excel spreadsheets described below show how horses can be traded across 2 or
possibly more markets. Note that, these trades always carry risk.
Just as all football trades
across more than one market just within Betfair carry risk, when using these
staking methods in horse races, there will always be one result that will show a
loss.
If you have a selection process that will eliminate part of that problem, that may help towards making a profit.
These are the options when trading 2
horse racing markets in the same race :-.
Bet in both markets
Lay in both
markets.
Bet in one market and lay in the
other.
We can trade all three of those
trading single runners, or several runners.
There is nothing new about betting 2 markets, laying 2 markets, or betting
in one market and laying another related market.
As with football trading, all that we need is a strategy and a bit of
imaginative staking.
Just about any 2 of these Betfair
horse racing markets can be combined for a trade :-
Win market
Place markets
W/O (Without a nominated runner, usually the favourite)
FC & RFC forecasts
A - B
(Horse A to beat Horse B or Horse B to beat Horse A)
The spreadsheets available below show what happens if one or more runners are
combined using 2 of those horse racing markets.
We can expect that the the Each Way odds
won't exactly mirror the Win & Place odds all of the time, so providing that we
can get matched at favourable odds by offering to bet or lay at better than the
current odds, or anticipating an odds movement there is a chance that we could
trade to profit if using this strategy.
If we trade a single runner, there are 3 possible outcomes for these trades :-
1.
Hit the winner,
2. Don't hit the winner, but our horse is placed,
3.. Finish
Un-placed.
In my experience, if we try to
balance our trade for an equal profit or loss across all 3 possible outcomes,
any profit will be quite small in relation to our E/W stake.
If we can eliminate one of the possibilities, profits can be increased.
With a bit of imaginative staking, we can eliminate outcome 3 "Unplaced", by reducing the
P & L for that result to zero whatever the result.
We are then left with outcomes 1 & 2 with the possibility of bigger profit if we
have a successful trade.
The spreadsheets described below
offer several options using manual input spreadsheets, or spreadsheets that show
the stakes required to eliminate one of the 3 possible outcomes.
Spreadsheets with manual inputs for all 3 markets allow the user to set all 3
stakes to any level and juggle those stakes until acceptable P & L is in the
sheets.
The spreadsheet that automatically eliminates outcome No. 3 by setting the
P or L to zero requires only an input for
the Each Way stake, plus the 3 sets of odds..
Stakes for the Win & Place markets are then shown in the spreadsheet to
eliminate the "Unplaced" result.
In theory, we can expect the odds in
these 3 markets to keep in step with one another, just as football markets do.
With commission in 3 separate markets, to make a success of these trades we will
probably need to bet high and lay low at odds better than the current odds on offer.
Unfortunately, there is no easy way to profit in any market or combination of
markets if we trade just within Betfair or any other
exchange.
Betting and laying to profit in Horse Racing markets is just as difficult as it
is in markets for other sports.
For a BIGGER VIEW of the video, click the small icon bottom right
with 4 square corners.
The Video below describes 2 spreadsheets that show the staking required to
eliminate the Un-placed outcome, by reducing the P & L to zero whatever the
result.
The only inputs required are the Fraction for the Each Way Place odds, an Each
Way stake, and the 3 sets of odds for our runner in the 3 markets.
Each Way + Win +
Place spreadsheet package
£10
After payment, there will be 4 files to download
from the download web page.
1. Bet E/W, lay Win, lay Place . . . . .set your own
stakes.
2.. Lay E/W, bet Win, Bet Place
. . . . set your own stakes.
3. Bet or Lay E/W, lay Win, lay Place with zero profit or
loss for Unplaced result. . . as per the video.
4. Bet E/W, lay Win, lay Place, bias P & L to favour
different results. . . . This is an experimental sheet
Use these spreadsheets to trade across the Each Way, Win and Place
markets of horse races.
After payment via
PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the
Excel spreadsheet files.
Betfair has an Each Way market, but a bet in the Win market and a bet in the
Place market can also be used to bet any horse Each Way of course.
The Betfair Each Way market odds may not always keep in step with the Win and
Place odds for some runners.
As the odds fluctuate, betting Win & Place may pay better or worse than betting
Each Way.
Video 2 below demonstrates a comparison of the 2 options.
The spreadsheet described here shows
the staking required for betting one or more runners in both Win & Place markets if
required.
Commission across both markets combined is built into profit and loss shown in
the spreadsheet.
The spreadsheet allows for 15 win bets, and 10 place bets using the balanced
staking of Dutching.
Those can be the same runners, or different runners in the 2 markets.
In the spreadsheet, bet
stakes can be set to different levels in the 2 markets.
If you bet several runners in a Place market, profit and loss is shown for up to
4 placed horses.
You will need to check the Betfair market for the number of places involved in
your chosen Place Market.
For those who look to bet Each Way
by placing a bet in the Win market and a bet in the Place market :-
A small spreadsheet is also provided
to work out the potential profit from a bet in the Each Way market in Betfair
after commission deductions.
That allows a comparison to be made to see which staking method pays best after
commission deductions, 2 separate bets, or a single bet in the Each Way market.
You may also find other uses for this Bet Win, Bet Place spreadsheet.
Input odds for several runners.
Change the stake sizes in the 2 markets to see the effect on profit & loss
across the 2 markets for all possible combinations of Win & Place results.
For a BIGGER VIEW of the videos, click the small icon bottom right
with 4 square corners.
Video 1 describes the
spreadsheet.
Video 2 demonstrates how
betting Win and Place at the available odds may pay
better than betting in the Each Way market for some
runners.
Unlike football markets, the odds in Betfair's horse
racing markets may not be totally in time with one
another. This video demonstrates that.
I
expect that the Betfair Each Way odds are the mid point
between bet and lay odds of the combined Win & Place
markets.
Look at those early - - well before Race Time when there
are gaps between bet an lay odds in those 2 markets, and
there may be a substantial difference between the
returns from 2 separate bets in Win & Place markets, and
a bet in the Each Way market.
Also a trade of 4 horses in the Win & Place markets is
demonstrated.
Bet Win, Bet
Place spreadsheet
£10
Use this spreadsheet to bet the Win market and bet the Place
market of horse races.
The
spreadsheet allows for 15 win bets, and 10 place bets using
the balanced staking of Dutching.
After payment via
PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the
Excel spreadsheet file.
Lay The Extra
Place. Bet the place, lay the
Extra place. Bet and lay 2 separate
place markets almost at level stakes. This is a bet and lay
strategy, but the outcome of the trade has the effect of laying a place market .
. . . but with profit from placed horses and payout only on
the single "Extra place".
Example :-
Bet a 3 place market, lay a 4 place market :- . . . . placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd =
profit, 4th place = lay
payout, Unplaced = zero
profit or loss.
The spreadsheet described
below shows what happens if we bet and lay 2 separate Place markets in the same
horse race.
Bet a 2 place market and lay a 3 place market - - - - and lose only if one
of our horses finishes
3rd.
Bet a 3 place market and lay a 4 place market - - - - and lose only if one
of our horses finishes 4th.
Bet a 4 place market and lay a 5 place market - - - - and lose only if one
of our horses finishes 5th.
Hit the winner or
placed horses in the smaller payout of the "Normal" place market to show a profit.
Unplaced runners will break even with zero profit or loss.
Only the "Extra" placed horse
will cause a loss.
Example. Bet a
3 place market, lay a 4 place market.
The staking in the spreadsheet is set to break even with zero profit or loss if
a traded runner is un-placed.
Bet and lay a runner that is placed in the "Normal" 3 place market and we can
have profit from that runner.
Bet and lay the "Extra" 4th
placed horse, and there is a loss.
The overall effect is that we can lay one or more runners and only have payout
if we hit the "Extra" 4th placed horse with one of our bet and lay trades of the
2 markets.
Bet and lay more than one runner using these 2 markets and only one horse will
cause a payout - - the horse that finishes 4th.
If you have not bet and layed that 4th placed runner, there is profit from all
horses traded that get placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd, in this example.
The spreadsheet has a facility for
staking for a profit from on all runners except one - - - the 4th placed horse
in the example above.
To do that, a percentage increase of the lay stake can be set in the
spreadsheet, demonstrated in the videos below.
For a BIGGER VIEW of the videos, click the small icon bottom right
with 4 square corners.
Video 1 describes the
spreadsheet.
Video 2 shows a live
trade.
In the Win market early in the video, odds for my runner
"Gwafa" were bet 21.0, lay 22.0.
Gwafa was badly hampered half way through this hurdle
race, and his jockey was thrown out of the saddle, so
his finishing position was "Unplaced".
Profit from the trade was £1 after commission deductions
which is 20% of the £5 initial bet stake.
Liabilities for the total trade in Betfair were minus
-£18.17
if the horse finished 4th.
If we divide £18.17 by
£1.05, the lay odds for £1 profit after commission were
lay odds 17.30 for a 4th place finish.
Before you read too much into the difference between the
lay odds 22.0 & lay odds 17.30, remember that Win market
odds are geared to the winner, not a 4th place finisher.
Nevertheless, for a lay of a single runner for a single
finishing position, the difference in the lay odds is an
interesting outcome.
There was also the possibility of a bigger £4.44 profit,
over 80% after commission if the horse had finished in
the first 3.
Lay the Extra
Place spreadsheet
£10
Use this spreadsheet to bet and lay 2 horse racing Place
markets
A link to the video above is in the spreadsheet is
included.
After payment via
PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the
Excel spreadsheet file.
Privacy :- No
personal information is collected on this web site.
E-mail addresses or any other information that is forwarded will not be passed
to 3rd parties.
These trades carry risk.
It is up to each individual to decide whether to enter into these trades or not.
The vendor cannot be held responsible in any way for losing trades whilst using
the spreadsheets described..
Efforts have been made here to explain the problems involved.