How the odds perform in football matchesDutch football matches on BetfairHedge football matches on BetfairLay football matches on Betfair  

Lay a Football Match on Betfair or other exchange.

List of all available spreadsheets.

After payment for a spreadsheet via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.

If you have problems downloading your spreadsheet,
e-mail me and I will send your spreadsheet by e-mail the next time I look at my in-box - usually every day.

You could Lay all 3 outcomes of a football match by :-

  • Laying both teams in the Match Odds market of Betfair, Betdaq or other exchange.

  • Then after the kick off, and some time has passed, whilst there is no score, Lay the Draw as the Draw odds decrease.

Alternatively, if one team is winning, you could :-

  • Lay the losing team and the Draw.

  • Then after some time has passed and the odds of the winning team have decreased

  • Lay the winning team for a small profit.

Other strategies.

1 or 2 Losers
Lay several selections, but have liabilities on only 1 or 2 targeted selections
All but those targeted 1 or 2 are winners for you.
Ideal for Correct Score, market or First Goal Scorer market.

Lay The Winning Team

Other web sites with spreadsheets

betformulas.co.uk
Formulas and maths of trading

betandlay.co.uk/strategies
Strategies for trading Horses and Football

New web site  laybets.net
Lay your losers with a bit of imaginative staking.
Strategies with live trade videos

Both of those methods would take advantage of small decreases in the odds, and profits would be very small if you only waited for short periods of time between your Lays.

The strategy described below, takes advantage of much bigger changes in Betfair odds due to a goal or several goals being scored.
Bigger changes in the odds offer bigger profits on a successful Lay of all 3 outcomes.

Down to  Play a Waiting Game for bigger profits.

This Laying strategy relies on a change in the odds in the Match Odds market, after a goal or several goals are scored.
Basic Strategy.

  • In the Match Odds market, before the kick - off, Lay the Draw.

  • After a goal is scored, Lay the Losing team.

  • Then Lay the winning team.

If we are able to do this, we have Lay (Dutched) all 3 outcomes, and if we stake correctly, we win an equal amount whatever the outcome of the match, Home win, Away win, or Draw.

After a goal is scored, the odds of the Draw will increase, but we have already Layed the draw at lower odds.
The odds of the Losing team will also increase.
The odds of the Winning team will decrease.
Immediately after a goal has been scored, and the odds have settled down, the Match Odds market will show a 100% book or very close.
If we step in straight away and Lay the Losing team and the Winning team, our book will be made up of the odds of the 2 teams at the present odds, plus lower Draw odds from before the game started.
Our book will therefore be Over-round, and we are guaranteed a profit.
Additionally, if we delay Laying the winning team, we will get even more favourable Lay odds for bigger profits from our Lays.
We could of course, not Lay the winning team at all, and take the whole of our Lays on the Losing Team and the Draw as profit.
If you chose to do that, you would have a big liability if events turned against you.

Excel spreadsheets are a quick and reliable way of doing calculations.
You can build a spreadsheet with the facilities described above, or purchase an excellent spreadsheet here for only a fiver.
Be A Bookie spreadsheet.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view this spreadsheet.

This Be A Bookie spreadsheet calculates the lay stakes required to Lay up to 25 selections to an equal liability.
You could of course use this spreadsheet for any event other than Laying the 3 outcomes of a football match in Betfair's Match Odds market.

Input the amount of your Total Payout, and as you input the odds of your selections, the spreadsheet shows :-

  • Total payout on any winner remaining constant at your original input.

  • The Lay stake required for each runner or team.

  • Equal liabilities against each runner/team

  • Liability on each runner/team reducing as more selections are Layed.

  • Percentage of your book at all stages.

  • Total of Lay stakes at all stages.

If you were laying horses in a horse race, the more runners you Lay, the less your liabilities become.
The more runners you Lay, the bigger the payout on a "Skinner" - a horse you haven't layed.

New Feature.
This spreadsheet now has an Adjust facility.
This Adjust feature allows you to bias your stakes in favour of any number of selected runners.

For example, you may be Laying the Match Odds market of a football match, and feel that the outcome will not be a draw.
You may decide to Lay the 2 teams, to show a profit, but break even if the outcome is a draw..
Stake correctly and you could :-

  • win if either of the 2 teams win the match,

  • break even if the match is drawn.

A variation could be to let the game go "In Play" before Laying the draw at lower odds, before a goal is scored.
That "In Play" strategy would carry risk, but as time passes in the game, and whilst there is no score, the draw odds should begin to shorten, giving a better profit.

After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.

Be A Bookie spreadsheet price = 5.
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment button below.

Play a Waiting Game for bigger profits.
The Basic Strategy described above will produce a profit after a goal, but profits can be enhanced by waiting until part way through the game before Laying the Draw, and then after a goal, waiting again before Laying the winning team.
After a goal has been scored, the odds of the Losing team will continue to get bigger as time passes, so i
t is important to step in and Lay the losing team quickly, once the Match Odds market has settled down.

  • After the kick-off, wait before Laying the Draw, to obtain lower Draw odds.

  • After a goal keep clicking "Refresh" in the Match Odds market to update the odds

  • .As soon as the Match Odds market has settled down, Lay the Losing team to avoid bigger Lay odds.

  • Wait before Laying the Winning team to obtain lower Lay odds

If you are able to do that successfully, the over-round of your book will be bigger, giving you a bigger profit.
The Be A Bookie spreadsheet can be used for Laying all 3 outcomes as time in the game passes without goals being scored, the Basic strategy, or Playing a Waiting Game.

This spreadsheet can also be used for Laying other sports.
For example you could use this spreadsheet to Lay up to 25 runners in a horse race, or up to 25 golfers in a golfing tournament etc..

Lay the Winning Team
This strategy involves both Dutching and Hedging.
Insurance against a draw result or a win by the "Losing Team", is provided by a Lay of the Winning Team.
Theory.
The aim of this strategy, is to have a winning bet on the final score in the Correct Score market.
To do that at any time in the game, we could Bet the current score, plus other scores as goals are scored.
If we continually Bet the current winning score as goals were scored, we would of course soon Bet an over-round book and quite often make a loss on our trades.
We can cut down on the number of Bets required, if we only have to Bet on one team.
To keep the number of bets on different scores to a minimum, we can wait until late in the game before entering the market.
To insure against a Draw result or the Losing Team scoring goals and going on to win the game, all we need is a very small insurance Lay on the winning team
.

Insurance Lay.
If we Lay the Winning Team, that Lay would be successful if the result was a Draw or a win for the team that was Losing when we placed our Lay.
By laying the winning team at very short odds, we can avoid having to Bet draw score lines such as 1-1, 2-2, and all possible scores for the team that was losing when we placed our Lay.
The cost of that Lay can be very small.
For example a Lay of 20 at odds of 1.04, carries a liability of only minus 0.80.

If we enter the market at a score of 1-0, and Lay the winning Team, we would have a successful Lay if the Losing Team equalized or won the game.
To hit the winning score for the Winning Team, we only need to Bet the current score of 1-0, plus 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, and Any Unquoted, but to Bet all those possible scores probably wouldn't be profitable.

So, the idea is, to enter the market late in the game, especially at a 2 goal difference in the score, such as 2-0 or 0-2, and Bet the current score and other scores as goals are scored, to make sure we Bet the winning score result.
If the match ends in a draw or a win for the "Losing Team", we have a successful Lay on the "Winning Team".

Strategy.

  • Late in the game, in the Match Odds market, Lay the Winning Team.

  • In the Correct Score market, Bet the current score line, plus the next 2 possible scores..

  • As the game progresses, Bet further score lines as necessary in the Correct Score market..

  • Make sure you Bet the final score result.

Example.  Russia - Sweden.  Euro 2008.  June 17th 2008.  Russia won the game 2-0.
Russia were leading 2-0 at 50 minutes.
Lay odds at 60 minutes for Russia were 1.09 in the Match Odds market.
Lay Russia 30 at 1.09 for a liability of -2.70.
In the Correct Score market, Bet the current score, 2-0, plus the next 2 possible scores 3-0 and 2-1, for a win or lose profit of 7.71.

Lay Odds Lay Stake   Winning Team Win Lose    
1.09 30.00   Russia -2.70 30.00    
             
             
Stake To Return   32.70     Overall
Betfair   BET Correct Scores Win Lose
Scores ODDS Adjust Stakes Win Lose    
1-0              
2-0 3.50   9.34 10.41 -22.29 7.71 7.71
3-0 5.00   6.54 10.41 -22.29 7.71 7.71
             
2-1 5.10   6.41 10.41 -22.29 7.71 7.71
3-1              
             
3-2              
Any Unqoted              
             
Total stakes     22.29        
             

Above is a snapshot of the "Trade Winning Team" spreadsheet.
Enter the Lay Odds of the Winning Team, plus the Lay stake.
Enter the Bet odds of the current score and the next 2 possible scores for the Winning Team from the Correct Score market.
In this case, with the score of 2-0, the current score is 2-0, and the next 2 possible scores for the winning team are 3-0 and 2-1.

Enter the odds, and the spreadsheet shows the stakes required in the Correct Score market, for the current score and the next 2 possible scores.
The potential Overall Win / Lose Gross profit is shown for the whole trade across both Match Odds and Correct Score markets, in this case 7.71.

Timing of your entry into the market is important.
If you enter the market late in the game, there is less time for goals to be scored, but be aware that the odds of the current score and possibly the next score up for the winning team will probably be shortening in the Correct Score market.

A problem with this strategy is that if you wait too long before entering the Match Odds and Correct Score markets after a goal is scored, for example at a score of 2-0 or 0-2, the Match odds may stabilise, whilst the Correct Score odds continue to shorten.
The effect of that is your potential profit may be reduced, especially if more goals are scored.
So, ...... before entering the market, use the spreadsheet to check for the potential profit.

An advantage of this strategy.

  • If you have Layed the winning team and a goal is scored by the Losing Team before you have placed Bets in the Correct Score market, the odds of the Winning Team should lengthen to some degree.
    This offers an excellent opportunity to Hedge out of the Match Odds market with a Bet on the Winning Team at Higher odds than your Lay.
    A Hedge spreadsheet is provided to show the stakes required for a successful Hedge in this situation.

Trade the Winning Team Excel spreadsheet 5.
You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view these spreadsheets.

Lay the Winning Team in the Match Odds market, then enter the odds of the next winning score lines for the Winning Team from the Correct Score market into the spreadsheet.
This spreadsheet shows the stakes required to :-

  • Bet the Current Score to an equal Win / Lose profit or liability at the odds you input.

  • Bet further scores to equalize your trade.

  • An Adjust facility allows you to favour a win or lose result.

  • Hedge spreadsheets are also included in this package.
    These can be used to exit the market at any time, or can be used to trade the odds in any
    market  ..... Football, Horses, Cricket, Tennis, Snooker  ..... anything.
    Bet First or Lay First, makes no difference.
    These spreadsheets show the stakes required to equalize your trade.

Feedback 20th Sept 2008
I just had to let you know how this one is going...........
I decided to give this a try today, instead of my usual laying of the draw.
I have just finished my fourth bet this morning using this and have varied in overall profit between $8 and $65.
My only "error" :- The first match I bet on, which is where the $8 profit came from, I didn't put enough on the Lay side of the winning team.
All I can say is "wow"; this is as close to shooting fish in a barrel as it gets!
I think Laying The Winning Team just became my "backbone" strategy for football
trading.
Alan, Vancouver, Canada.

Feedback 24th March 2009.  Now a seasoned "Winning Team" trader :-
I am really having a lot of success with the "Trade Winning team" spreadsheet.
I am usually able to get anywhere from $10 - $35 profit (based on doing a $100 lay) most of the time.

The strategy I have found effective is to back my correct scores at about 50 minutes, when the leading team's price is usually 1.25 or so.
Unless they have a *huge* lead, I am usually able to cover all the winning team's most likely correct scores (4-5 results) due to the better prices.
Then I usually wait a bit for the winning team's price to come down below 1.10 before placing my lay on the Winning Team.

I find this increases the profit by a bit, since the initial back bets on the correct scores are based on the higher price of the Winning Team (say 1.25), but if I can lay off at 1.05 instead, it's a bit of a bonus.
It carries an element of risk, particularly if the winning team only has a margin of one goal, but if I feel the trailing team might score, I will usually include the potential draw score amongst my "correct score" back bets.

For example, if the score is 2-1, I will cover the 2-2 score as well, as insurance while I am waiting to place the Lay on the Wining Team.
I have just simply found that by the time the leading team's price is down around 1.10 and lower, the price on the current score is so low that it kills a lot of the profit one could otherwise potentially make.
I
figure the leading team will go on to win I would guess, at least 9 times out of 10.

Of course, by waiting you run the risk of the lay price going up should the other team equalize/go ahead.
Alan, Vancouver, Canada.

This is Alan's strategy for bigger profits but with slightly more risk :-

  • Late in the game, with one team wining, Bet the current score, plus potential winning scores of the winning team.
  • Wait for time to pass in the game, and the Lay odds of the winning team should shorten.
  • Lay the winning team at shorter odds than earlier in the game (when you Bet the Winning Team score lines).
  • If the winning team wins, you have a winning bet.
    If the losing team wins or the game is drawn, you have a successful Lay on what was "The winning team" when you placed your bets and lays..

After payment via PayPal, select the "Return to merchant" option on the PayPal screen.
PayPal should then route you to a download web page where you can obtain the Excel spreadsheet file.

Trade the Winning Team Excel spreadsheet price = 5.
Payment is by PayPal, but you don't need a PayPal account to use the payment button below

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