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HOW THE ODDS
PERFORM ON BETFAIR DURING FOOTBALL MATCHES
Down
to the Match Odds Market
Down to the Correct Score Market.
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lives here :-
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Follow this link for
Horse Racing "Best in at the weights" spreadsheets.
Match Odds market.
Odds
movements in Betffair football markets are governed by 2 factors :-
-
Time passing in
the game
-
and goals being
scored.
As time passes, and
goals are scored, the Betfair football markets anticipate the finishing score.
The odds adjust in all markets accordingly.
If the odds didn't adjust in an organised and predictable manner, Bots (Robot
staking software) would step in and make guaranteed winnings.
Betfair football markets are extremely efficient due to the volume of software
that is monitoring the markets looking for the slightest of edges.
Also the volume of general trading often into millions of pounds in some games,
snaps up any value odds that may be offered in any market.
Any variation from the expected odds offers a trading edge to any software that
is programmed to these very efficient markets, so if odds are offered that are
not in step with time passed in the game and goals scored, bots will step in and
bet or lay the market to where it should be.
That is my theory.
You may have your own opinions, but in my opinion Betfair football markets offer
virtually no edge whatsoever, simply because of the volume of trading that takes
place in these very popular markets.
The only way forward to make a profit from Befair football markets is to gamble
on goals being scored, or time passing in the game.
There is no other way of trading these markets.
Whether you use a strategy, or simply bet and lay odds movements, the success or
failure of your trades will be totally dependant on just 2 elements - Time
and Goals.
If you can come up with some other significant factor, you could be on your way
to your first £££ million.
The table below, describes the
football odds movement in the Match Odds market once a football match (soccer)
goes "In Play" on Betfair.
If we have a good idea of how the odds in a Betfair market perform, we can
produce a trading Betfair football strategy for different situations.
|
Match Odds
Betfair market - In Play. |
| Whilst there
are no goals, the odds of the 2 teams increase while the odds of the draw
decreases. |
| After a goal
is scored, the odds of the winning team decrease whilst the odds of the
draw and the losing team increase. |
If the
outsider of the 2 teams scores first, the draw odds may stay quite static
whilst the odds of the losing team increase.
The odds of the winning team (the less fancied of the 2 teams) decrease,
but initially, will not shorten nearly as much as they would had the
favourite team scored first.
In this case, the market expects the favourite team to equalise and
possibly go on to win the game, therefore there is less movement in the
Draw odds, and the odds of the winning team do not shorten immediately to
any great degree. |
Towards the
end of a game, odds movements accelerate.
The odds of the winning team, or if it is a draw, the odds of the draw
shorten dramatically as the final whistle approaches, whilst the odds of
the other 2 outcomes increase dramatically. |
Example. Rangers v Barcelona.
22nd October 2007. No goals were scored.
The times shown are approximate.
| Time in minutes |
|
0 |
20 |
Half Time |
50 |
70 |
76 |
80 |
83 |
87 |
90 |
91 |
92 |
| Rangers |
Bet |
5.9 |
6.6 |
7.6 |
9 |
9.6 |
10 |
9.6 |
14 |
16.5 |
42 |
85 |
120 |
| |
Lay |
4 |
6.8 |
7.8 |
9.2 |
9.8 |
10.5 |
9.8 |
15 |
21 |
50 |
90 |
160 |
| Barcelona |
Bet |
1.74 |
1.73 |
1.86 |
1.93 |
2.54 |
3.15 |
3.7 |
4.3 |
6.4 |
9.8 |
25 |
30 |
| |
Lay |
1.75 |
1.74 |
1.87 |
1.95 |
2.56 |
3.2 |
3.75 |
4.5 |
6.6 |
10 |
46 |
40 |
| Draw |
Bet |
3.8 |
3.65 |
2.98 |
2.66 |
1.96 |
1.71 |
1.57 |
1.4 |
1.25 |
1.1 |
1.04 |
1.01 |
| |
Lay |
3.85 |
2.7 |
3 |
2.68 |
1.97 |
1.72 |
1.58 |
1.41 |
1.26 |
1.13 |
1.05 |
1.02 |
Example. Dynamo Kiev v Man Utd.
23rd October 2007. The favourite scores first and wins the game without
losing the lead.
| Time in minutes |
0 |
11 |
12 |
19 |
35 |
40 |
Half Time |
67 |
79 |
| Score |
0-0 |
0-1 |
|
0-2 |
1-2 |
1-3 |
|
1-4 |
2-4 |
| Dynamo |
6 |
20 |
21 |
100 |
22 |
120 |
140 |
1000 |
210 |
| |
6.2 |
21 |
22 |
120 |
28 |
140 |
150 |
---- |
---- |
| Man Utd |
1.72 |
1.24 |
1.23 |
1.06 |
1.22 |
1.04 |
1.04 |
---- |
---- |
| |
1.73 |
1.25 |
1.24 |
1.07 |
1.23 |
1.05 |
1.05 |
1.01 |
1.01 |
| Draw |
3.85 |
6.6 |
7 |
20 |
6.6 |
24 |
29 |
400 |
75 |
| |
3.9 |
6.8 |
7.2 |
22 |
6.8 |
25 |
30 |
500 |
150 |
Example. 15th October 2007.
Luton v Northampton. The favourite scores first.
The other team equalizes, but the favourite team goes on to win the game.
| Time in minutes |
|
0 |
18 |
26 |
Half Time |
47 |
64 |
83 |
89 |
| Score |
|
0-0 |
1-0 |
1-1 |
|
2-1 |
3-1 |
|
4-1 |
| Luton |
Bet |
2.18 |
1.5 |
2.4 |
2.64 |
1.37 |
1.05 |
1.02 |
---- |
| |
Lay |
2.2 |
1.51 |
2.44 |
2.66 |
1.38 |
1.06 |
1.04 |
1.01 |
| Northampton |
Bet |
3.85 |
9.8 |
4 |
4 |
19 |
150 |
500 |
1000 |
| |
Lay |
3.9 |
10 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
20 |
170 |
1000 |
---- |
| Draw |
Bet |
3.5 |
4.3 |
2.92 |
2.64 |
4.4 |
19.5 |
60 |
1000 |
| |
Lay |
3.53 |
4.4 |
2.94 |
2.66 |
4.6 |
20 |
65 |
---- |
Example 8th December. Reading
v Liverpool. The outsider of the 2 teams scores first.
The well fancied team equalizes, but the outsider goes on to win the game.
| Time in minutes |
|
0 |
20 |
35 |
Half Time |
55 |
65 |
70 |
85 |
| Score |
|
0-0 |
1-0 |
1-1 |
|
|
2-1 |
3-1 |
|
| Reading |
Bet |
7.2 |
3.0 |
7.2 |
8.4 |
9.4 |
1.95 |
1.18 |
1.02 |
| |
Lay |
7.4 |
3.05 |
7.4 |
8.6 |
9.6 |
1.96 |
1.19 |
1.03 |
| Liverpool |
Bet |
1.59 |
2.64 |
1.73 |
1.78 |
1.83 |
5.5 |
48 |
680 |
| |
Lay |
1.6 |
2.66 |
1.74 |
1.79 |
1.84 |
5.6 |
55 |
750 |
| Draw |
Bet |
4.2 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.05 |
2.84 |
3.15 |
7.2 |
40 |
| |
Lay |
4.3 |
3.45 |
3.45 |
3.1 |
2.88 |
3.2 |
7.4 |
46 |
Reading scored first at 16 minutes.
Note in this example how the odds of the winning team at 20 minutes are still
bigger than the losing team, and the draw odds remain shorter than before the
kick off.
Clearly, the market expected Liverpool to equalize, and go on to win the game.
Liverpool equalized at 27 minutes.
With the score at 1-1, the draw odds continued to shorten again, whilst the odds
of both teams lengthened.
A goal took the score to 2-1 at 59 minutes.
Even though one team was once again winning, the draw odds remained shorter than
before the kick off until the scored reached 3-1 at 66 minutes.
Compare this example with the Dynamo
v Man Utd. example above.
In that game, the strongly fancied favourite scored first , but here the
outsider scored first.
The table below, describes the odds movements
in Betfair Correct Score football markets once a football match (soccer) goes
"In Play".
|
Correct
Score Market
Betfair Odds - - In Play - - First Half. |
During the First Half of the game,
the odds of the current score plus the next 2 possible scores (if a goal was scored), will shorten as time passes.
The odds
of all other scores (as a whole) will get bigger.
Some of those other scores may move very little, whilst others lengthen.
For example, whilst the score is 0-0, the odds of 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 will
shorten as time passes.
1-1, 2-0 and 2-0 (the scores 2 goals ahead of 0-0) may not move much at all, but other scores should get
bigger as time passes in the game. |
If a goal is scored, taking
the score to 1-0, 0-0 is no longer In Play, and 0-1, 0-2 and 0-3 are
no longer In Play.
If the score is 0-1, the scores no longer In Play are 0-0, 1-0,
2-0, and 3-0. |
At a score of 1-0, the odds
that would be shortening would now be 1-0, 2-0 and possibly 1-1.
That is the
current score of 1-0, plus the next 2 possible scores of 2-0 and 1-1.
Whether 1-1 shortens significantly depends on whether the market considers
that the losing team will score an equalizing goal.
In a game with a strong favourite winning at 1-0, or 0-1, the market may
decide that the less fancied team will not score to get the score to 1-1, so
the 1-1 odds may not shorten significantly.
All other scores put together will be getting bigger. |
If the score then gets to 1-1, the shortening odds will be 1-1, 1-2 and
2-1, with all other odds (put together) getting bigger.
At 2-0, the shortening odds will be 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0, with all other
odds (put together) getting bigger. |
Odds
changes on Betfair.
As a general rule, the odds of 2 of the 3 shortening odds will halve
(approximately) in the First Half of the game.
Actual example. From a game that was still 0-0 at Half Time.
0-0 odds before the Kick Off, Bet 8.8, Lay at Half Time 3.5.
1-0 odds before the Kick Off, Bet 8.8, Lay at Half Time 6.4.
0-1 odds before the Kick Off, Bet 8.0, Lay at Half Time 4.7.
Actual example. From a game that was 1-0 at Half Time.
0-0, 0-1, 0-2 and 0-3
were no longer In Play at Half Time.
1-0 odds before the Kick Off, Bet 7.6, Lay at Half Time 4.4.
1-1 odds before the Kick Off, Bet 7.6, Lay at Half Time 6.4.
2-0 odds before the Kick Off, Bet 10, Lay at Half Time 5.2. |
That general principle of 3
sets of odds shortening applies to all games.
The general rule that 2 of those 3 odds will halve (or thereabouts) by
Half Time applies to all games.
In games in which one team is a very strong favourite, you may find that
some odds move more than others, but the general principle of 3 sets of
odds shortening whilst all others (put together) get bigger will apply.
|
Correct
Score Market
Betfair Odds - - In Play - - 2nd Half. |
|
During the 2nd Half of the game,
the 3 odds shortening principle will continue until about 60 minutes. |
60 minutes and beyond.
In the 2nd half, at about 65 minutes and afterwards, only the odds of
the current score will shorten, whilst all other odds lengthen. |
For example, at a score of 0-0, at about 65 minutes, and certainly 70 minutes,
the odds of 1-0 and 0-1 will stop shortening and start to get bigger.
At this point in the game, the market decides that the game will end
0-0.
The majority of traders will stop betting on 1-0 and 0-1.
Layers are unable to get their lays matched, so have to offer to lay 1-0
and 0-1 at higher odds. |
In a high scoring game, the current score will
continue to shorten, but both of the other scores (1 goal up from the
current score) may remain quite stable.
In this case, the market sees that there have been plenty of goals.
Layers are reluctant to offer bigger odds for both teams in case there is a
late goal, so only scores 2 goals or more ahead of the current score
increase significantly. |
Although things may be less
predictable in the 2nd Half, these general principles apply to all games.
Betfair Football odds follow the
patterns described above, and are very predictable.
Predicting when goals will be scored (or not), and by which team is the problem
for Betfair football traders.
Contact me
Copyright H. Hutchinson
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